| How Do The Cavs Stack Up Against The East? Authored by Keith Berzanske - October 29, 2007 - 10:48 pm
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EAST ADDS
Kevin Garnett
Ray Allen
Rashard Lewis
Zach Randolph
Jason Richardson
Ricky Davis
Mark Blount
Jamaal Magloire
Al Horford
Acie Law
Joakim Noah
Rodney Stuckey
Yi Jianlin
Sean Williams
Nick Young
Thaddeus Young
Jason Smith
plus the expected improvement to the next level from young players such as:
Rajon Rondo
Andrea Bargnani
Louis Williams
Shelden Williams
Marvin Williams
Shawne Williams
Marcus Williams
JJ Redick
Rodney Carney
Josh Boone
Daniel Gibson
Shannon Brown
Ike Diogu
Also, several teams that missed the playoffs last year have to be considered as serious playoff contenders this year, either due to a roster overhaul (e.g. Boston) or the return of several players from injuries (e.g. Milwaukee).
Last year, the Orlando Magic took the 8 seed with 40 wins. This year it will probably take 43-44 to get the same spot. So any team that probably can't win 43-44 can likely be eliminated from playoff contention.
Lottery-bound:
CHARLOTTE
NEW YORK
PHILADELPHIA
INDIANA
The Bobcats mad a solid move adding a veteran in Jason Richardson rather than another lottery pick, but then subsequently lost potential young stars in Sean May and Adam Morrison for the season. Emeka Okafor is a defensive presence, Raymond Felton is coming into his own at the point, and Gerald Wallace is everywhere, attacking fearlessly. But I'm not sure this team has enough depth to improve from 33 wins to 44. Perhaps next year, when they can combine another lottery pick with the returns of May and Morrison, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
The Knicks area a mess. Lots of talent, but it doesn't mesh well together. Zach Randolph is a terrific player, but unfortunately he and Eddy Curry are too much alike and Randolph will eat minutes away from David Lee, who is a vital piece. Also, their point guard, Stephon Marbury, could be declared legally insane any day now and it wouldn't surprise me. That can't be good. Until Isiah Thomas is gone, I can't pick this team for the playoffs.
Philadephia has some interesting young talent, but not enough to make the playoffs in the East. This might be a breakout year for Louis Williams. But their third best player is Kyle Korver, and that just doesn't strike me as a playoff bound roster.
The Pacers might be the worst team in the East. How long can they hold onto Jermaine O'Neal? They should consider taking offers on him as the trade deadline and just rebuild. They have too many holes to patch up around O'Neal before he starts to decline.
THE PARTY CRASHERS
ATLANTA
BOSTON
MILWAUKEE
These teams had to watch the playoffs on TV last year, but this year may be a different story. Especially in Boston, where nothing short of devastating injuries should prevent the celtics from making the playoffs.
Milwaukee is the most difficult team to figure out. They could win anywhere between 34-54 games and I would not be surprised. Their whole team returns healthy, plus they added Yi and Desmond Mason, and young palyers like Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut have another year of experience under their belts. The Bucks will be one of those teams fighting for a spot the last week of the season.
Atlanta is another team who lost too many man games due to injury last year. Their biggest problem is at point guard. If rookie Acie Law seizes the job and performs well, the Hawks will surprise. If he struggles, as rookie point guards are apt to do, then yet another trip to the lottery awaits. This could be the year that the Hawks break through, however, and sneak into the playoffs.
THE VULNERABLE
TORONTO
NEW JERSEY
ORLANDO
MIAMI
WASHINGTON
These are the teams in danger of sliding out, if something goes wrong and one of the teams shadowing them indeed improves enough to move up and pass them by.
History doesn't like teams that gain as many wins as the Raptors did from one year to the next. Teams like this generally backslide a bit. Unfortunately, the Raptors don't have much room for error if they want a return trip to the playoffs. They have a legitamite stud in Chris Bosh, but they sort of won their division by default last year. This year, they will have to contend with the new-look Celtics. They've added some shooters in Carlos Delfino and Jason Kapono, but still lack depth up front. The Raptors also don't play much defense. TJ Ford, however, is a guy who just seems to win games as a point guard, and you have to love a guy like that.
The Nets are always a question mark because their success depends so much on the health of Jason Kidd and Vince Carter. They have made inmprovements in the frontcourt, but there isn't really anyone there that will scare the opposition much. Nenad Krstic's return will help if he can show he is the same player he was before the injury. Bostjan Nachbar has emerged as a surprising contributor.
Orlando basically replaced Grant Hill with Rashard Lewis. They are really counting on the improvement of young players such as JJ Redick, Jameer Nelson, and Dwight Howard. Howard is fantastic, but the Magic may find themselves on the outside looking in.
Don't be surprised if the Heat miss the playoffs. Any extended absences from either Shaw or Dwyane Wade, and they are in serious trouble. It wil be interesting to see how Ricky Davis and Pat Riley get along in Davis's second stint with the Heat.
I fully expect the Wizards to make the playoffs, but since they finished at .500 last year, I can't really pencil them in as a lock. Still, they have two All-Stars, size, good young talent(Andray Blatche, Nick Young, Oleksiy Pecherov), and a guy who is not afraid to take the shot under pressure at the end of games (Gilbert Arenas). They have also made the playoffs the past two seasons, and the core pieces have been together.
THE LOCKS
CLEVELAND
CHICAGO
DETROIT
Barring a catastrophe, these teams are making the playoffs. There is no way they win less than 44 games. Cleveland has some cause for concern with the holdouts of Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic, but these guys will show up, trust me. If they sit out, this year won't count, and they will be in the same position next year, contract-wise. Plus, the Cavaliers can always use them as bait in trades if they can't get them to come in at the price they want. Both players are marketable commoditites.
People forget how good the Cavaliers were at defense and rebounding last year, due to their being pummeled by the Spurs in the Finals. The Cavaliers win over Detroit was no fluke - they really should have won all 6 games. They thoroughly dominated the Pistons physically, and mentally they were not intimidated in the least. People should not underestimate the value of the Cavaliers playoff run last year. This team has confidence. Also, the Cavs reached the Finals last year despite some things going horribly wrong. The entire backcourt was awful most of the season. To say that Larry Hughes struggled would undermine the efforts of struggling people. Also, their free throw shoting was abysmal. Devin Brown was a nice addition, hopefully he will take the minutes that went last year to Eric Snow and David Wesley.
The Pistons have improved, even with the loss of Chris Webber. They have exciting young talents that they can work in with their veterans. Whle it's uncertain how all these youngsters will play night to night, the Pistons still have enough to make the playoffs.
I can't pick the Cavaliers to repeat, not in their current state. So right now, I am going with the Bulls. They still don't have enough scoring in the paint, but I love the addition of Joakim Noah, who is ready to play now, and they have enough pieces, whether or not they keep them or exchange some of them for Kobe Bryant. Luol Deng should make the All-Star team this year.
Predicted Order of Finish:
(1) Chicago
(2) Boston
(3) Cleveland
(4) Washington
(5) Detroit
(6) Toronto
(7) New Jersey
(8) Atlanta
(9) Milwaukee
(10) Miami
(11) Orlando
(12) Charlotte
(13) New York
(14) Philadelphia
(15) Indiana
Toughest call is that 8 spot - going with the Hawks over the Bucks because the Bucks have to play so many games in the Central against Cleveland, Chicago, and Detroit. I don't think Orlando is deep enough yet, and the Heat are falling apart, counting on too many guys who are either long in the tooth, like Shaq, Penny, and Alonzo, or guys with questionable reps, like Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. I just don't like the mix there anymore - too much on Wade's shoulders.
PROJECTED DEPTH CHARTS:
ATLANTA
Starters
PG Speedy Claxton
SG Joe Johnson
SF Josh Smith
PF Marvin Williams
CN Zaza Pachulia
2nd team
PG Acie Law
SG Salim Stoudamire
SF Josh Childress
PF Shelden Williams
CN Al Horford
BOSTON
Starters
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
CN Kendrick Perkins
2nd team
PG Tony Allen
SG Eddie House
SF James Posey
PF Glen Davis
CN Scot Pollard
CHARLOTTE
starters
PG Raymond Felton
SG Jason Richardson
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Emeka Okafor
CN Primoz Brezec
2nd team
PG Jeff McInnis
SG Matt Carroll
SF Walter Hermann
PF Jared Dudley
CN Othella Harrington
CHICAGO
starters
PG Kirk Hinrich
SG Ben Gordon
SF Luol Deng
PF Tyrus Thomas
CN Ben Wallace
2nd team
PG Chris Duhon
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Andres Nocioni
PF Joe Smith
CN Joakim Noah
CLEVELAND
starters
PG Daniel Gibson
SG Larry Hughes
SF LeBron James
PF Drew Gooden
CN Zydrunas Ilgauskas
2nd team
PG Devin Brown
SG Shannon Brown
SF Sasha Pavlovic
PF Donyell Marshall
CN Anderson Varejao
DETROIT
starters
PG Chauncey Billups
SG Richard Hamilton
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Rasheed Wallace
CN Antonio McDyess
2nd team
PG Lindsey Hunter
SG Rodney Stuckey
SF Amir Johnson
PF Jason Maxiell
CN Nazr Mohammad
INDIANA
starters
PG Jamaal TInsley
SG Marquis Daniels
SF Danny Granger
PF Troy Murphy
CN Jermaine O'Neal
2nd team
PG Travis Diener
SG Shawne Williams
SF Michael Dunleavy
PF Ike Diogu
CN Jeff Foster
MIAMI
starters
PG Jason Williams
SG Dwyane Wade
SF Ricky Davis
PF Udonis Haslem
CN Shaquille O'Neal
2nd team
PG Smush Parker
SG Dorell Wright
SF Penny Hardaway
PF Mark Blount
CN Alonzo Mourning
MILWAUKEE
starters
PG Maurice Williams
SG Michael Redd
SF Bobby Simmons
PF Charlie Villanueva
CN Andrew Bogut
2nd team
PG Charlie Bell
SG Desmond Mason
SF Yi Jianlin
PF Michael Ruffin
CN Dan Gadzuric
NEW JERSEY
starters
PG Jason Kidd
SG Vince Carter
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Josh Boone
CN Nenad Krstic
2nd team
PG Marcus Williams
SG Antoine Wright
SF Bostjan Nachbar
PF Sean Williams
CN Jamaal Magloire
NEW YORK
starters
PG Stephon Marbury
SG Jamal Crawford
SF Quentin Richardson
PF Zach Randolph
CN Eddy Curry
2nd team
PG Nate Robinson
SG Fred Jones
SF Renaldo Balkman
PF David Lee
CN Jerome James
ORLANDO MAGIC
starters
PG Jameer Nelson
SG JJ Redick
SF Rashard Lewis
PF Tony Battie
CN Dwight Howard
2nd team
PG Carlos Arroyo
SG Hedo Turkoglu
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Bo Outlaw
CN Adonal Foyle
PHILADELPHIA
starters
PG Andre Miller
SG Andre Iguodala
SF Kyle Korver
PF Reggie Evans
CN Samuel Dalembert
2nd team
PG Louis Williams
SG Rodney Carney
SF Thaddeus Young
PF Shavlik Randolph
CN Jason Smith
TORONTO
starters
PG TJ Ford
SG Anthony Parker
SF Jason Kapono
PF Chris Bosh
CN Andre Bargnani
2nd team
PG Jose Calderon
SG Carlos Delfino
SF Joey Graham
PF Jorge Garbajosa
CN Rasho Nesterovic
WASHINGTON
starters
PG Gilbert Arenas
SG DeShawn Stevenson
SF Caron Butler
PF Antawn Jamison
CN Brendan Haywood
2nd team
PG Antonio Daniels
SG Nick Young
SF Darius Songaila
PF Andray Blatche
CN Etan Thomas
EASTERN CONFERENCE ALL-STARS
Gilbert Arenas
Dwyane Wade
LeBron James
Kevin Garnett
Dwight Howard
Ray Allen
Luol Deng
Michael Redd
Chris Bosh
Jason Kidd
Joe Johnson
Emeka Okafor
next dozen:
Caron Butler
Jermaine O'Neal
Zach Randolph
Andrew Bogut
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Shaquille O'Neal
Vince Carter
Andre Iguodala
Chauncey Billups
Richard Hamilton
Paul Pierce
Rashard Lewis
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