| Cavs stand pat amidst shakeups in East Authored by Keith Berzanske - August 9, 2007 - 11:47 am
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that we’ve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, let’s look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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But even if the Cavaliers playoff run last year is underestimated by most, it is true that little has been done this offseason. The Cavaliers are basically counting on improving through continuity, improved health, and improvement from their young players. These concepts, especially continuity, are vital to success but often overlooked. People forget that during the Bulls threepeats, they basically would keep the same squad together and they thrived on their familiarity and teamwork. Continuity is the root of team defense - it's no coincidence that the best defensive teams (San Antonio, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland) have been running the same personnel out there for a couple of years now. That's not to say that certain teams will not pose a challenge to the team's quest to repeat as champions of the East. It will be difficult for the Cavaliers, but at the same time they should not be dismissed as a lucky one-year wonder.
Let's take a look at the East in tiers:
TOP TIER (guaranteed playoffs):
CHICAGO
CLEVELAND
DETROIT
I can't imagine any scenario where these teams don't make the playoffs (barring a rash of major injuries). They have too much talent and are too good on defense, and they won't have long losing streaks. The Bulls still have the problem in that they rely too much on the jump shot, but their talent pool is ridiculously deep.
BOTTOM TIER (not making the playoffs):
ATLANTA
INDIANA
PHILADELPHIA
I liked the Hawks draft picks, but I still think it's another year before they can be considered a playoff team. Their competition has improved too much, while they are counting on a rookie point guard and pseudo-center.
Philly is in a similar situation. They have some good building blocks but are too young to think playoffs, considering how teams like Boston improved.
The Pacers are going in the wrong direction. I don't think they make the playoffs with Jermaine O'Neal and they might end up trading him for future assets.
THE MIDDLE TIER
That leaves 9 teams fighting for 5 spots:
BOSTON
CHARLOTTE
MIAMI
MILWAUKEE
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
ORLANDO
TORONTO
WASHINGTON
I'm going to eliminate the Knicks because...well, they are the Knicks. They have too many me-first players who need the ball. I like Zach Randolph as a player, but he and Eddy Curry are too similar and will be in "black hole" mode...if they ever get the ball from Stephon Marbury and Nate Robinson. Also, David Lee now will lose minutes, which is not good. It's going to take 42 wins to get into the playoffs in the East this year, and I can't see the Knicks winning more than they lose with this roster. There is talent though - if anyone besides Isiah Thomas was in charge, there might be hope.
So the other 8 teams besides the Knicks are then fighting for 5 spots, which means it will likely come down to injuries.
It might come as a surprise that I have included Milwaukee, but last year's 28 wins were an aberration. They had so many players miss time with injuries. Check out the list of games missed:
82 Bobby Simmons
43 Charlie Villanueva
29 Michael Redd
16 Andrew Bogut
14 Mo Williams
That's 184 games missed from your starting 5. Plus backup center Dan Gadzuric missed 28 games. All these guys are healthy now, Williams has a new contract, they signed Desmond Mason to come off the bench. and villanueva and Bogut should continue to improve. And they have Yi, if he ever shows up. Not sure how much he will add this year though...
Charlotte may also be a surprise, but history has shown that when you collect so much talented youth it eventually breaks through to a winning season. The light just goes on at some point. The acquisition of Jason Richardson gives them veteran help to go wiht their impressive young nucleus of Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor, Raymond Felton, Adam Morrison, and Sean May. They've also got Walter Hermann and Matt Carroll to provide long range shooting. The only thing missing is a backup for Felton, now that Brevin Knight has left. This team reminds me of the late 80's Cavaliers or the late 90's Mavericks. Eventually, they are turning the corner. They are in much better shape than Atlanta, put it that way.
Boston is depending a lot on their big three of Allen, Pierce, and Garnett, but that should be enough for a playoff berth. Problem is, if they don't win their division, they are looking at the 6 or 7 seed. Try winning 3 playoff series on the road against the 1, 2, and 3 seeds to get to the Finals. The only time I can remember this happening was when Hakeem carried the '95 Rockets on his back. Maybe KG has that in him. One thing about the trade is that it made both Minnesota and Boston far more interesting to watch.
Don't be surprised if teams like the Nets and the Heat find themselves on the outside looking in. The Heat are starting to look like Lakers East, becoming a one-man wrecking crew. If you recall, the one-man Wade show wasn't translating into winning percentage last year. Shaq is in a steep decline, and how much can Alonzo have left. I think it's a bad sign that they are counting on the development of Dorell Wright. Healthy, I think the Heat are in at the bottom, but they are a fragile squad at this point.
Washington and New Jersey each have a big three with little defense or inside presence. Still, Arenas/Butler/Jamison and Kidd/Carter/Jefferson - those are tough for opponents to deal with. I like Washington's trio a but better and I think the Wizards will make the playoffs.
Once camp opens and preseason games start, we'll be able to get a better feel for these bubble teams. And who knows - maybe the Hawks will surprise and throw their hat into the ring.
So yes, the Bucks got healthier, the Celtics got Ray and KG, the Magic got Rashard, the Nets and Wizards added some big bodies, the Bobcats added Richardson and have a cache of talented youngsters...what does all of this mean for the Cavaliers? The competition is definitely trying to bridge the gap, but how close are they getting?
The Cavaliers made no major moves, but have the follownig assets:
YOUNG PLAYERS WHO WILL GET BETTER:
Daniel Gibson, Sasha Pavlovic, Shannon Brown, and Anderson Varejao are just scratching the surface. People forget that the late 80's Bulls passed the late 80's Cavaliers simply by improving from within - Scottie Pippen and Horace Grant developed into All-Stars (Pippen into one of the top players in the league), whereas the Cavaliers young talent like Danny Ferry and Hot Rod Williams maxed out at a lower level.
Now, none of these players are Scottie Pippen, but all should improve. All except Brown have shown they belong in the league and will probably have ten year careers at minimnum. I'm not totally sold on Brown, but I'd like to see him get more minutes. He's not a true point guard though, so I'm not sure where he fits.
Varejao got the most burn of all these players last year. Even if he never gets much better than he is now, he's still an extremely valuable role player, and he has the kinds of skills that don't really diminish.
The two guys with the most upside are Gibson and Pavlovic. It's true that Pavlovic is in his 4th season, but fans should remember that he barely played until the second half of last year. He is really an "x" factor for the Cavaliers at this point. He could feed off of James and develop into an All-Star or he could stagnate and never get much better than he is now. Of all of the players who are still developing, Pavlovic may be the most important one, due to his size, shooting ability, and overall skill level.
Gibson will be a fan favorite for years just from his playoff performance last year, no matter what else he ever does. The challenge for him will be doing what he did in that short time frame over a full season. He seems to have extreme confidence in his abilites and a great rapport with LeBron James, so I expect that he will add a lot this year.
Let's also not forget how important the health of Larry Hughes is. Hughes has never looked totally comfortable, even when healthy, but he is a key part of the team's success. He is a key defender and has the ability to lead a second unit in scoring when James is resting. If he's going to be here in Cleveland, hopefully he will find a way to stay on the floor and somewhat justify his big contract.
The Cavaliers got off to a slow start last year and it took them 2/3 of the seasont o even figure out who they had and who could do what. Even with all of the improvements their competition in the East has made, there's no reason to think that this team can't win 55 games. The expereince of going to the Finals had to improve their confidence as a whole, and James not only had a run of playoff success and clutch performances, but also hasn't even hit his prime yet.
Sometimes the best move you can make is not to make a move at all, and to just take what oyu have and let it develop. Let's hope that this is the case for the Cavaliers. |
