| "Experts" wrong - Cavaliers can defeat Spurs Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 7, 2007 - 3:23 pm
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But just like in 'Kill Bill', we can ask - "did you really think it was gonna be that easy?"
Between ESPN, sports talk radio, and the seemingly endless supply of internet bloggers and columnists, countless reasons have been given informing us, the readers, the fans, exactly why the Cavliers have no chance. I'm here to dispel all that.
Because I am picking the Cavaliers to win in 6 games.
I know I am going to be ridiculed for this pick. I am going to be called a 'homer'. After all, I am to Cleveland what Bill Simmons, a.k.a "The Sports Guy", is to Boston . I've been a Cavaliers fan as long as I can remember, back to 1980 when I would listen to Joe Tait on WWWE 1100 am, desciribing how Bill Laimbeer was grabbing a rebounding and throwing an outlet pass that would lead to silky smooth Mike Mitchell hitting a feathery jumper from the wing. Alas, Ted Stepien was in charge, and he traded both Laimbeer and Mitchell, not to mention a seemingly endless slew of draft picks (most of which went to Dallas - the old joke is that the Mavericks officials were afraid to go to lunch because they might miss a call from Stepien). Ever since then, the team seemed snakebitten.
Until Game 5.
Admit it Cleveland fans. Until Game 5, which I am henceforth dubbing "Judgment Day" (since, like the Terminator, LeBron just kept coming, in the face of all of the obstacles thrown at him), every Cleveland fan has been watching this playoffs while holding their breath. Not wanting to get too excited. Not wanting to look too far ahead. Waiting for the crucial error that would cost the Cavaliers a game, or maybe a series. There is a long tradition of sports heartbreak in Cleveland, as has been well-chronicled by the national media (although they paint in broad strokes, never getting all the really juicy details right...but I digress...). Cavaliers fans have been waiting for the other shoe to drop...mentally they were not prepared for success. The Cavaliers had shown a tendency to play to the level of competition, so the fans expected an occasional lackluster effort and some nailbiters against the undermanned Wizards. It never happened - the Cavs swept convincingly.
It was funny then how the media, who is in love with Jason Kidd (and I love Kidd too, but c'mon - the Nets have zero frontcourt scoring, they weren't beating the Cavaliers), picked Nets over Cavs as the most likely upset. Even when they Cavs were ahead in the series, many "experts" (such as Skip Bayless) predicted the Nets would come back and take the series. Never happened. Indeed, the Cleveland fans were a bit nervous when the team came out totally flat for game 5, but they rectifieed that on the road in Game 6.
Still, there was a sense that the "Cleveland curse" was taking over in both Games 1 and 2 of the Pistons series, when LeBron made "The Pass" (in the tradition of "The Drive", "The Shot", and "The Fumble") to Donyell Marshall and was lambasted by the hypocritical national media. Never mind that Michael Jordan once passed to Steve Kerr for a game winning shot, or that Larry Bird "dropped it off to DJ", etc. etc. The play is not a failure because of the pass, it's because the guy missed the wide open shot. If Dennis Johnson gacks that layup after Bird's steal, then the steal means nothing - would Bird get second guessed for not calling timeout to set up a shot for himself? It's ridiculous how the result is looked at more than the execution. All you can do in basketball (in anything, really) is continue to do the right thing, make the correct play, and over time the odds shift in your favor that good result come about. Which is what LeBron James did. Recognize that he did not play a good game overall, somehow had no free throw attempts despite getting repeatedly mauled in the lane, and still made the correct pass to win the game. If Marshall hits the shot, then people are talking about how brilliant LeBron is. Well, he's not any dumber just because Marshall got 'sphincteritis'.
Then there was the ultimate Cleveland sports moment in Game 2, where the Cavaliers blow a 12 point halftime lead, then get a one point margin back late, only to watch two non-calls (Rasheed's shove of Anderson Varejao, and Rip Hamilton's 'trifecta foul' - the head, then the shoulder, then the arm) plus a miracle fadeaway shot by Rasheed on the baseline. That game should have killed them. The fans were ready to pack it in. The national media had alraeady started talking about a Pistons/Spurs rematch, and how the Pistons had a chance to compete with the Spurs.
But LeBron James was not done. He knew that it wasn't over until they lost 4 and they had only lost 2, and they should have won those. The Cavaliers were the better team. He knew it, and his teammates and coaches followed his example. Despite his Cleveland-area roots, James did something after Game 2 that was very "non-Cleveland", something we can all learn from. He refused to pass the buck, make excuses, or take the easy way out. He showed the highest level of leadership. It would have been easy for him to blame Marshall for Game 1, to blame the officials for Game 2, but no - he took it on his own broad shoulders, and said "I have to play better". The Pistons form then on had the same incredulous look that Apollo Creed had after he had beaten Rocky Balboa to a pulp, and Rocky picked himself off the canvas and motioned to Creed that he was ready for more. That 'uh-oh, he's still alive' look.
Looking back, it seems that James was really maturing and making a statement in Games 3 and 4. Now we realize that he was just warming up for his signature moment - Judgement Day. Much like Michael Jordan sent the Cavaliers franchise into complete and total disarray on May 7, 1989 whne he made his fabled "Shot" over Craig Ehlo, you can just feel that LeBron did the same to the beast that was the Pistons. Is there any way to conceive the Pistons coming back next year with the same team and thinking that they can compete? Chris Webber, Lindsey Hunter, and Dale Davis are probably going to retire. Rasheed Wallace has lost his mind. Antonio McDyess is mentally defeated - after the game he made the statement to the effect of "my window to win a championship is closed". Chauncey Billups is a free agent coming off a poor playoff. He wants to stay a Piston, but you know that some team desperate for a point guard is going to come over the top with an offer, just like the Bulls did with Ben Wallace. Are the Pistons going to want to match? They should try to convert Billups, Wallace, and Nazr Mohammad into other assets and build around Prince and Hamilton. They have some nice young bit pieces in Jason Maxiell, Carlos Delfino, and Amir Johnson also. Who knows how good these are in full time duty though?
Side note: Will people now start to take note of how overrated a GM Joe Dumars is? Yes he looks great compared to most of the total loons that are running teams (Isiah Thomas, Kevin McHale, the chess piece Billy's (King and Knight), anyone named Babcock...), but he really blew a chance at having a dynasty. I mean, let's look at what Dumars accomplished in a positive sense since he took over in 2000:
DRAFT
2000 - Brian Cardinal (#44)
2001 - Mehmut Okur (#38)
2002 - Tayshaun Prince (#23)
2005 - Jason Maxiell (#26)
2005 - Amir Johnson (#56)
TRADES
2/22/01 Traded Jerome Williams and Eric Montross to Toronto for Corless Williamson, Tyrone Corbin, Kornel David, and a 1st round pick
9/7/2001 Traded Mateen Cleaves to Sacramentoo for Jon Barry and a 1st round pick
10/1/2002 Traded Rodney White to Denver for Don Reid, Mengke Bateer, and a first round pick
(These three trades are what I call the "anti-Paxson" philosophy - Dumars actually acquired 1st round picks and also occasionally useful players for guys he wasn't using. It's unforutnate that two of these guys (Cleaves and White) were horrible first round picks by Dumars but at least he rectifiedhis error somewhat. You can never have too many first round picks; if nothing else, they are valuable as trade bait.)
7/18/2001 Traded John Wallace and Jud Buechler to Phoenix for Clifford Robinson
9/11/2002 Traded Jerry Stackhouse, Brian Cardinal, and Ratko Varda to Washington for Richard Hamilton, Hubert Davis, and Bobby Simmons
2/19/2004 Traded Chucky Atkins, Lindsey Hunter, Bob Sura, a 1st round pick, and cash to Boston and Atlanta for Mike James and Rasheed Wallace (OK - even though Sura was awesome in Atlanta, this is just theft...)
FREE AGENTS
10/29/2001 signed Damon Jones
7/7/2002 signed Chauncey Billups
7/16/2004 signed Antonio McDyess
1/16/2007 signed Chris Webber
So Dumars gambled and won on Billups, who was coming off a stellar playoff series in Minnesota filling in for injured Terrell Brandon, but had never helmed a team full-time at that point), and he fleeced to inept GM's in Billy Knight (Atlanta) and Michael Jordan (Washington) to get Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton. Webber and McDyesss were no-brainers - they came to ride the coattails and win a ring, obviously they were worth what they signed for. The Prince draft pick was inspired also.
However, as good as some of the moves are on this list, there are some equally bad ones:
DRAFT
2000 - Mateen Cleaves (#14)
2001 - Rodney White (#9)
2003 - Darko Milicic (#2)
TRADES
2/15/2006 Traded Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo to Orlando for Kelvin Cato and a 1st round pick
WAIVERS/NON-SIGNINGS
9/24/2002 waived Bobby Simmons
allowed Mehmut Okur, Mike James, Ben Wallace, and Damon Jones to leave as free agents
The Darko pick really caused a domino effect of bad stuff. Imagine if the Pistons had taken either Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, or Carmelo Anthony, then kept Okur (who would not have been worried about losing playing time to Milicic), and then kept at least one of either James, Jones, or Arroyo. The Pistons already went to 5 staright Eastern Conference Finals with the team they have now - any doubt they win 2-3 more championships with that other squad? Imagine a starting linup of Billups, Wade, Prince, Rasheed Wallace, and Ben Wallace, with a second unit of Arroyo, Hamilton, Simmons, McDyess, and Okur?!!! Yes I know there is a salary cap, but even if we jettison Ben Wallace, we can put Okur at center and add Maxiell to the second unit and it's still awesome, plus Miami has no Wade and thus probably does not deal for Shaq.
OK, so Dumars has more good things than bad, but the mistakes he did make cost the Pistons a chance at a true dynasty.
So instead there is a new "dynasty" (not sure I like to throw that work around lightly, but the Spurs have been fairly dominant in the Duncan era - throw out Derek Fisher's miracle shot and Ginobili's foul on Dirk last year and they could easily have 5 titles). And how can the Cavaliers, inexperienced, flawed, and so reliant on a 22 year old man-child, be expected to defeat such a team of crafty battle-tested veterans? The rest of the league just expects the Cavaliers to go away happily. Like 'eh, you guys are lucky to be here, enjoy your week in the sun'.
Listen up everyone - it took a long time for the Cavaliers to get here. They are not just going to roll over. They are better than you think.
They can defeat the Spurs.
Now, I'm not saying that the Cavaliers are better. But they can win.
How can such a thing be believed? Well, let's first dispel all the myths and hyperbole about why the Cavaliers can't win:
(1) They won the East, the East is terrible, the West is awesome blah blah blah
Um, haven't we heard this the last 3 years? And hasn't the East won 2 of the 3 titles (Detroit in 2004, Miami in 2006) and taken the West to 7 games in the other?
Also, this seems biased against the Cavaliers. If Miami or Detroit had come out of the East, no one would be bringing this up. So Cleveland completely handles Detorit, mentally and physically, but they are not good enough? If the East is so easy to win, why didn't Dtreoit win it? Why didn't Chicago? Miami couldn't even win one playoff game. This is similar to what happened in 2004 - people assumed the Pistons could not defeat the Lakers without even really looking at the teams or the matchups. The Lakers were lucky to get to the Finals that year. They got by the Spurs because of Fisher's miracle, and then played the Timberwolves, whose floor leader (Sam Cassell) was out injured. They had bad chemistry and were finally exposed by Detroit.
This year's Spurs isn't the walking soap opera that Lakers team was, but they have gotten some breaks. They won two tainted games in the Suns series, the one with the suspensions, and the one where Nash had to sit out for bleeding after being head-butted, and they barely won the others. They avoided the Mavericks thanks to Golden State and avoided Houston thanks to Utah. The Jazz were a formidable opponent but they were not at full strength either, given the injury to Deron Williams and Derek Fisher's family situation. So why do we hear about how lucky the Cavaliers were to get depleted Washington, yet the Spurs get a free pass?
Also, the Cavaliers went 19-11 against the West this year, so it wasn't like they were beating up on the East only. They swept the Spurs and Lakers and also split with Utah and Houston.
In addition, I'm tired of hearing how Denver and Utah are better than the Pistons or Cavaliers, or how the Cavs were lucky to avoid Miami or Chicago. You really think that the Cavaliers and LeBron James couldn't have taken out any of those teams, after basically watching a 6-game sweep of the Pistons?!!!
Also, enough about the Cavaliers only winning 50 games. They didn't even have their lineup set until about 30 games were left in the year - guys like Gibson and Pavlovic were losing minutes to guys liek Snow, Jones, and Wesley early on in the year. Look at the March-May performance - Cavaliers were as good as any team in the league.
(2) The Bruce Bowen factor
Part of the reason the Spurs have advanced is because of Bowen, a notorious dirty player and cheap shot artist. Tape the games and then rewind and watch only Bowen the second time. His whole strategy is to get in the opponent's head by making him fear for his career or personal well being. He knees, elbows, slaps, holds, and also does that dirty thing where he slides under people while they are in the air and doens't give them a place to land, except somewhere dangerous. I dare anyone to wtch only Bowen for a whole series and then tell me he shouldn't be taken out back by three guys with a pipe and a bicycle chain, like Nick Nolte tried to do to DeNiro in 'Cape Fear'.
Problem for the Spurs - this won't work against LeBron. Bowen is little more than a mosquito to LeBron. In fact, it would add to LeBron's resume to humiliate Bowen to such a degree that they stop the hilarity of mentioning him as one of the top defensive players in the league. Look for LeBron to destroy Bowen. We'll see King James in the post, using the left hand...everything in the arsenal.
(3)Spurs are a 'team', Cavs are a one man team
This is totally false - first of all, has anyone noticed how stellar the Cavaliers have been on defense lately? Did anyone notice that Detroit's largest lead the whle series was 8 points?!!! The Cavaliers have plent yof big long-armed guys and have completely bought into this help defense concept that Mike Brown brought from the Spurs. There are few easy looks any more against Cleveland.
The biggest problem that the Cavaliers will have is containing Parker. Gibson especially will be under fire to step up, and he may have a rough go, although he did show in the Detroit series that he is no matador on defense. However, now that Eric Snow has been relegated (thank God) to spot duty, he can be placed on Parker (and Ginobili for that matter) in key situations where stops are needed.
Now, as for offense, did anyone notice how the Cavaliers players now seem more comfortable in their roles? How they have some set lineups based on different styles of play? How the guys seem to play within themselves nand their abilities more now (excpet maybe for Varejao, who occasionally tried something crazy)?
More important, they have actually bonded as a team. They enjoy playing together, they are unselfish, and they trust each other. It all filters down from LeBron. The play in Game 1 of the Pistons series was a microcosm. James had n problem passing to Marshall and would probably do it again 10 times out of 10 in that situation. Knowing that gives Marshall confidence to shoot. It gives other guys motivation to move to the open spot and be ready to knock down shots, like Daniel Gibson did in Game 6.
So while the Spurs play extremely well together (their catalyst being Duncan), they are not the only ones. The Cavaliers have in essence been modeled in the Spurs image, except that they have a different type of superstar in LeBron James.
Also, the LeBron's teammates have skills. Gooden is an excellent offensive rebounder and is deadly with the midrange jumper. Ilgauskas is a huge matchup problem, and can block shots on defense. Pavlovic can match Ginobili with athleticism. Hughes and Snow are solid defenders, while Gibson has shown that he can score and has no fear. Varejao has constant energy and is a continual annoyance to the opposition (he drove Rasheed Wallace nuts). Jones and Marshall, even when not making their shots, have to be respected as threats, whcih opens up the floor for the slashers to drive to the hoop. It's not just a bunch of idiots.
(4) Experience is the trump card
Nonsense...
This is the same exact argument that was trotted out back in 1991, when Michael Jordan finally got his Bulls past the Pistons, only to meet up with the 5-time champion Lakers. Too bad for MJ, they said. He's a one-man team. yeah he finally got past Detroit, but there's no beating Magic and the Lakers.
But it was a bad matchup for the Lakers. Scottie Pippen slowed down Magic. Jordan missed a chance to win the first game, but he imposed himself on the Lakers and created an aura which lasted over the next 4 games, all wins by the Bulls. That was when he became "Michael Jordan" and began to carry the mental intimidation factor on to the court, where guys just did not believe that they could beat him. You could see LeBron garner a bit of that status on Judgment Day, when the Pistons just started getting out of the way as LeBron drove the lane.
Those Bulls weren't just happy to be there, and neither are these Cavaliers. Yes, I know they're not supposed to win. But Ohio State wasn't supposed to beat Miami (FL) either. The Patriots weren't supposed to beat the Rams. Oh, I know, those are 1 gamers, not 7-game series. OK, so let's pull out the 75 Warriors and the domination of Rick Barry, or even the 1988 Dodgers with the amazing Orel Hershiser and that one moment from Kirk Gibson that turned the invincible A's into just another beatable team. If you want to be more recent, let's remember that we could count on one hand the number of people who really believed the Warriros were taking out the Mavericks. The bottom line is: the Cavaliers have the best player. And when you have the best player, you always have a chance to win.
I see the Cavaliers pulling a shocker tonight t owin Game 1, the Spurs evening it up in Game 2, the Cavaliers taking 3 and 4, the Spurs tkaing game 5, and the Cavaliers winning the 6th game to take it down. Yes this means the Cavaliers are going to have to win 2 road games. Every road Finals team usually has to do this if they want to win (note that the Bulls did not have home court each time that they won). This is because the Finals format obscenely favors the home team. The road team already has to win one on the road to win. But the 3 home games are now back-to-back-to-back. Do you know how difficult it is to beat the league's best team in 3 straight games ANYWHERE?!!! The Cavaliers have really improved at winning on the road, however. Note that they closed out all three playoff series so far on the opponent's floor.
So there's my pick and yes, there is probably a bit of wishful thinking thrown in and also a bit of 'battle the idiots' syndrome, where people make such ridiculous statements to the other extreme that maybe in arguing them I have gone too far in this direction. But I've seem this team grow, and while it is flawed (abysmal free throw shooting, inconsistent production from everyone but LeBron, unimaginative offense at times) and there is still room to improve, the team also has several assets that lend itself to winning a series such as this - great defense, a superstar, who can handle pressure, courageous role players who know their spots, and a raucous home fan base. Also, as we learned in the Mavericks/Warriors series, sometimes matchups mean everything. The Cavaliers would not have matched up well with the Suns, but they do match up well with the Spurs; indeed they are almost a mirror image in styles, at least on defense. Yes, they will struggle to score on the Spurs, but the Spurs aren't going to find it easy to run up points on the Cavaliers either. The Cavaliers are younger and more athletic, and while they would normally be intimidated by the settings of the Finals (which would be a huge advantage to the Spurs), I think the presence of LeBron negates all that. The whole team has been part of the LeBron show for 4 years now, and I just think they are beyond being awestruck by their surroundings at this point.
If I believed in the Cleveland curse, I wouldn't dare pick the Cavaliers. But I don't. Not after Judgment Day. LeBron transcends all that has happened before. That's why, even being a Cavaliers fun, I can be objective and see that the Cavaliers winning it all this year is not just a pipe dream. People never beleived LeBron would lead the Cavaliers this far, and they won't believe he can win a championship until he does it. But he's proven his critics wrong on every count so far. Even when he wins one, they'll probably say 'yeah but he hasn't won multiple titles'. But he's got to get one first.
The rest of the East has to be terrified at the thought of the Cavaliers even making a decent showing here. Who is going to compete with them over the next 3-4 years in that conference? The Pistons are done, at least in their current form. The Bulls have no inside scoring - if they could swing a Zach Randolph deal, maybe we could consider them a threat. The Wizards play no defense, and the Nets and Pacers seem headed in the wrong direction. Miami has Wade, but what else? It's hard to see them improving, and Wade is much more fragile than LeBron. Young teams like the Magic, Bucks, Hawks, and Bobcats are more of a concern to the Cavaliers at this point (OK, forget that I included the Hawks). If the Cavaliers make decent personnel moves, they really could dominate the conference for a few years. Notably, if they could work a deal for Rashard Lewis, maybe giving up Larry Hughes and Shannon Brown or something (the Sonics may lose him for nothing so prehaps a sign-and-trade can be worked out). When you think of Hughes and his tenure here, it's hard not to think about what the team would look like with Michael Redd here instead. I brought this up at the time, saying that Redd had a chance to choose his legacy and went the wrong way. The same with Carlos Boozer. Those guys are on teams headed in the right direction, but there's no way they can't look back and at least have a little regret. The Cavaliers aren't just a team on the way up, they are now one of the elite teams. And who knows - if LeBron pulls it off this year, and maybe a couple of other times, in a few years the Cavaleirs will be the dynasty. And then the tables will be turned; another upstart young team will come in and Cleveland fans will say 'The Cavaliers are a dynasty, they have experience, they can't lose to *THAT* team"...
I'm looking forward to the irony in that, to being the hated favorite, to being on eof those annoyed lifelong Cavaliers fans who has to deal with all of the bandwagon jumpers and all of the columnists who will write the revisionist history of LeBron James and just talk about how great he was like they knew it all along (like Charley Rosen is doing now). And even then, how angry will I possibly be? My team will be among the pernnial elite, contending for championships year in and year out. The arena will be sold out consistently. Cavaliers gear will be visible everywhere.
And I will be able to look back, to now, to tonight, Game 1 and think...this is where it all started.
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feedback? write Keith Berzanske at nothingbutnet44@hotmail.com |
