| NBA playoffs - random thoughts Authored by Keith Berzanske - April 22, 2007 - 1:08 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that we’ve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, let’s look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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As good as last year's playoffs were (arguably the best ever), this year's matchups are even more intriguing...
WEST
WARRIROS/MAVERICKS
The Mavericks completed one of the best regular seasons in the history of the league, losing only 15 games. Somehow, 3 of those losses were to the Warriors. Is this because Warriors coach Don Nelson knows the Mavericks so well? Probably not - while he might know Dirk, the rest of these Maverick are new enough that they have spent mroe time under Avery Johnson's tutelage than under Nellie.
An argument could be made that Nellie is one of the most overrated coaches of all time. Yes, I'm actually making that argument. If you want a quirky team that might get you to round 2 of the playoffs due to the matchup problems they represent, then Nellie is your man. Consider that Nellie coached a Mavericks team with Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Antawn Jamison, Antoine Walker, and Josh Howard to only 52 wins and a first round playoff exit 3 years ago. Avery Johnson has done so much more with so much less talent by getting the most out of the talent he has and having a winning philosophy.
So while the Warriors present a typicla Nellie matchup problem for the Mavericks - by playing small they effectively remove Mavericks centers Erick Dampier and DeSagana Diop from the game, and force the Mavericks to play differently than they are used to - that's not going to be enough to win a 7-game series.
It will be interesting to see what the Warriors do with their hodge-podge of talent. If they were smart, they would trade Baron Davis while his value is high. The injury-prone Davis is never going to have a better year than this one, and the Warriors barely made the playoffs as it was.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks are in A-Rod territory. Anytihng less than a championship and the season is a dismal failure. Anyone who thinks they are going to let the Warriors be the team to ruin their season clearly doesn't understand how good or how motivated the Mavericks are.
PREDICTION: Mavericks in 6
LAKERS/SUNS
Bottom Line: The Lakers couldn't beat the Suns last year, when the Suns were missing Kurt Thomas and Amare Stoudemire, and the Lakers had all of their players healthy. They'll probably win one game due to the sheer brilliance of Kobe Bryant, but there's no way they are taking out the Suns.
The interesting subplot of the series will be Kobe's quest to break yet more scoring records. After the verbal abuse he took last year for not shooting the ball in Game 7, and knowing that his team is severely outmatched, don't be surprised if Kobe just says 'the hell with it' and tries to win the series by himself.
What's most interesting about the Lakers to me is Lamar Odom. He is obscenely talented and in theory is a perfect fit for the triangle with his ball-handling and passing abilities...yet he never really seems to fit in. Don't be surprised if Odom is used as part of a package in an attempt to get Kevin Garnett. The Lakers probably have enough pieces to pull off such a deal, although they may be forced to include Andrew Bynum to get the Timberwolves to pull the trigger.
The Suns were my preseason pick to win the championship (over the Cavaliers) and I see no reason to change that pick, even given that all the things the Mavericks have accomplished histprically indicate they will hoist the trophy at season's end. I just think Steve Nash is on a mission. The Suns will definitely have to earn a title, needing to go through the scoring champ (Kobe and the Lakers), a three-time defending champ (Tim Duncan and the Spurs), and this year's MVP and the favorite (Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks) just to get to the Finals, and then have to deal with whoever the East throws out there.
PREDICTION: Suns in 5
NUGGETS/SPURS
The Nuggets are really rolling, and will be a huge adversary for the Spurs. Unfrotunately, Marcus Camby has been a little too healthy this year, so I don't see him making it thru the whole series without turning an ankle or spraining an eyelid or something...
OK, jokes aside, the Nuggets could give the Spurs trouble. Camby probably deserves to be Defensive Player of the Year, and will make things difficult for Tim Duncan. And anytime you have two scoring threats like ALlen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, you can never really be counted out. I wouldn't be surprised to see this go 7 games, but I expect the Spurs to prevail in the end.
PREDICTION: Spurs in 7
ROCKETS/JAZZ
It's hard to believe that Tracy McGrady has never won a playoff series. It's not like he's been choking or underperforming, averaging nearly 29 points per game in his playoff career. I think this is one of those cases where a player like McGrady just is not going to allow hiself to have another first round exit. He knows how damaging it would be to his legacy. Also, the Rockets are better prepared this year to succeed when McGrady or Yao is off. They have excellent glue guys in Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, and Juwan Howard.
What's interesting about the Jazz is how lost Andrei Kirilenko seems to be, and how as the team has gotten better (thanks to the stellar play of young Deron Williams), AK47 has regressed. It will be interesting to see what the Jazz do with Kirilenko, who would probably be more comfortable playing the 4 regularly. It might be beneficial for the Jazz to trade him for a solid two guard. Perhaps they could work an exchange with the Sonics for Ray Allen, or maybe even a sign and trade for Vince Carter (ok, the thought if Carter in a Jazz uniform is totally comical...)
PREDICTION: Rockets in 6
EAST
MAGIC/PISTONS
The revenge of Darko? Hardly. This is a series for the Magic to get their feet wet and that's it. The Pistons are going to be focused on getting this series over and done with, as they have a tough matchup looming in Round 2.
One of the most interesting free agents this off-season will be Grant Hill. Hill likely won't get much of an offer, but it will be interesting to see where he ends up. He has proven that he can still be an asset, when healthy.
PREDICTION: Pistons in 4
WIZARDS/CAVALIERS
The Wizards couldn't beat the Cavaliers last year with Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler...I dont' think they have any chance this year. They will probably win one game justbecause the Cavaliers are such poor shooters and tend to space out every once in awhile.
On a side note, it was nice to see Butler make the All-Star team this year, 4 years after I freaked out that the Cavaliers passed on him on draft day to take DaJuan Wagner.
The Wizards can actually get something positive out of this series - there will be lots of guys getting valuable playoff minutes and also being forced to step up and make big shots that would normally be taken by Arenas or Butler. This could serve them well next year.
PREDICTION: Cavaliers in 5
NETS/RAPTORS
This is an intriguing matchup. The Raptors have to be the most ignored 3 seed in league history. I haven't talked to one person who even thinks they can get out of the first round. I'm starting to wonder if anyone has seen the Raptors play. They are pretty good! Chris Bosh is developing into a superstar and they have good complementary players and a nice uptempo style that fits their team. They also have a little bit of an attitude, which is good to see.
With all that said, I'm taking the Nets also. The veteran presence of Jason Kidd is a huge advantage, and I think that Vince Carter will make a statement and light up his old team. Carter has gotten a bad rap for quitting on the Raptors, but go back in Raptors history and look at what they made him endure those past couple of years...the coaching changes, questinable personnel moves, the general lack of appreciation - he just went into a funk that last yaer, and the change of scenery did him good. Carter mightbe the most underappreciated star of this generation - he can just do amazing things (witness the obscene triple double he got a few weeks ago) and he doesn't shy away from taking shots in the clutch.
PREDICTION: Nets in 6
HEAT/BULLS
I have no idea what to predict in this series between two overrated teams. That's right - I said overrated. All this talk about the Bulls winning the East - give me a break. A jump shooting team? Have you ever seen a good team go through as many cold spells as the Bulls do? That's because they don't have a guy that can reliably score inside 12 feet. You are not going to win three playoff series just chucking it up from the outside, no matter how good your defense is. Anyone that thinks the Bulls are going to beat the Heat, then the Pistons, and then the Cavaliers is seriously in need of a reality check.
I do think that that Bulls will get out of the first round because they are matched up with the overrated Heat. This is nto the same Heat team that won last year. Honestly, I didn't think they were that good last year - they did pick the right time to get hot though. People seem to just think the Heart will just turn it on whevener they want though, and it just doesn't work that way. They need Wade to be more than 100% and he's just not. He probably shouldn't even be playing right now.
It was nice to see Shaq take half the season off and round into form right when the playoffs came around. Only in the East...
I really think that with the right personnel moves, the Bulls could set themselves up as a huge threat for years to come. They can't afford to make moves like they did last year, however. I think they will definitely regret sending Tyson Chandler packing and then spending huge dollars on Ben Wallace. Add to that that they gave away JR Smith and then traded LaMarcus Aldridge (just what they needed) for Tyrus Thomas, and then didn't dumnp PJ Brown's expiring contract in a trade...you have to winder which Paxson is really running the Bulls. We all remember how Jim Paxson almost wrecked the Cavaliers - we are still feeling the effects. They will be one of the more interesting teams to watch in the offseason
PREDICTION: Bulls in 7
Now, I have a lot more to say about the offseason, notably about the draft and the teams in the lottery, but it deserves its own column. So look for that later in the week. |
