| Mid-Season Report - grades for everyone (even me!) Authored by Keith Berzanske - January 27, 2007 - 1:21 am
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That's right - I'm going to grade myself.
After all, it's only fair - why am I above reproach.? The players, teams, coaches, GM's - they all have their own individual goals and expected results, and we grade them on whether they have met or exceeded those goals. I had the gall at the beginning of the year to make some predictions, so now seems like a good time to see whether or not they are panning out, and in the process summarize what's happened so far this year.
PLAYERS MAKING THE LEAP
As part of my season preview, I predicted that the following 12 players would have breakout seasons:
Caron Butler
Andrew Bynum
Luke Ridnour
Nenad Krstic
Darko Milicic
Maurice Williams
Michael Dunleavy
Al Jefferson
Shaun Livingston
Anderson Varejao
Jarrett Jack
Hakim Warrick
Where I was right:
CARON BUTLER - This one I take as I personal triumph, having villified then-GM Paxson for selecting DaJuan Wagner over Butler in the 2002 draft, and then every year repeatedly telling people how great a player is and hoping he could get into a situation where he wasn't the third or fourth option. Now in his 5th season and with his third team, Butler has found his niche and is playing at an All-Star level. If he is not selected for the game, consider it a travesty. He is the Wizards second option after Gilbert Arenas, he draws fouls, he rebounds like a beast, and is an underrated passer and a fierce competitor.
ANDREW BYNUM - I can't wait until this guy starts playing full time. He's oviously still developing and has holes in his game, but the progress he has made in one year is astounding. He is quite fluid around the basket and should be a force in the Lakers' pivot for years to come.
MAURICE WILLIAMS - Williams is actually playing better than TJ Ford ever did, making the Bucks trade of Ford for CHarlie Villanueva look that much better. Don't be deceived by the Buks recent slump - both Williams and Vilanueva (as well as star Michael Redd) have been out injured. Williams should only improve, as this is just his first season as the full time starter. He's more of a scorer than Ford was, but can stil rack up assists and run the offense, and he's proven over the past two seasons that he can hit clutch shots.
JARRETT JACK - Jack is out injured right now, but he was performing solidly as the Blazers starting point guard.
AL JEFFERSON - Jefferson started slow, and then at some point hte light went on and he became a double-double machine. The Celtics haven't been winning, but you can't ask much more from Jefferson, who is dominating in the post and on the glass.
HAKIM WARRICK - Warrick's minutes have gone down since Pau Gasol's return, but he filled in more than adequately while Gasol was out injured, with a few 20/10 games even. I expect Pau to be traded, and Hakim to step in and take over once again. A great defender and an underrated offensive player, Hakim is just one of those guys who makes an impact on the court. I think the Grizzlies are finally starting to realize what they have here.
Where I was wrong:
MICHAEL DUNLEAVY - obviously, the Warriors weren't getting what the ywanted out of Dunleavy, since they decided he needed to be traded and dealt him to the Pacers. It wil be interesting to see if Dunleavy, a smart and skilled player but not really a star, will fare much better in the new environment, or if his confidence is too badly shaken from his time with the Warriors to regain his consistent high level of versatile play that he showed in college.
SHAUN LIVINGSTON - this was the greatest disappointment, and ironically, I thought it was the biggest softabll on the list. I mean, who wasn't predicting a breakotu year for Livingston? He shows flashes, but he hasn't really put together long stretches of excellence and he still has a very mediocre jump shot.
The jury is still out: Krstic, Milicic, Varejao, and Ridnour
These 4 are doing a but better then last year, but really haven't yet made a leap to a new level of play. In Krstic's defense, he tore his ACL, so he is out of commission until next year. Varejao's problem might just be getting minutes behind Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Time will tell with these guys - all solid players, but haven't yet reached the level that I am still confident that they can and will.
STARS IN INTERESTING SITUATIONS
ALLEN IVERSON/KEVIN GARNETT
I suggested that one of these be traded so these two perfectl meshed superstars could play together, since neither of their teams was going anywhere. The Timberwolves have actually been a surprise (especially in firing their coach while sitting in the 8th playoff spot).
Minnesota was a contender to get Iverson, but Kevin McHale wasn't smart enough to figure out how to get it done despite having a prime asset in Randy Foye, so Iverson went to Denver where he was paired with Carmelo Anthony. Denver should be interesting, to say the least. I don't think the two players will have trouble co-existing (Iverson always gets a bad rap as a ballhog), but I think they are relegated to a 7 seed at best, and I don't see them getting past the Suns or Mavericks in a playoff series.
VINCE CARTER
Carter may still be traded - the Nets have gotten off to slow start, and now 2 of their best 4 players are out indefinitely. This really comes down to whether or not the Nets believe they can resign Carter in the offseason. The smart move would probably be to move him and rebuild - after all, they are only hovering around .500 with the team as is...
AMARE STOUDEMIRE
I claimed that he was the most important player in the NBA, and I don't think that's too far off - since his return to the starting lineup, the Suns are 32-2. ANd he's not even operating at full capcaity yet. Scary!
PAU GASOL
I was right on here - the Grizzlies were a huge mess by the time Pau got off IR, and it seems very likely he will be moved.
TRACY MCGRADY/YAO MING
I was a little off here - my concern that these two would stay healthy was accurate, but my perception that they would fall apart if these guys were injured was way off. I underestimated this year's Rocket supporting cast, who has really stepped out despite being without McGrady, Ming, and even Bonzi Wells for extended periods. Impressive.
GRANT HILL
I wrote that a healthy Hill makes the Magic a playoff team. So far Hill has been pretty healthy. I'm really interested to see what happens to him in the offseason. Will he retire? I'm sure someone will give him an offer.
SHAQ
I predicted a painful decline for Shaq, and the first half of the season was certainly forgettable for the Big Injured One. He can make me eat my words with a stellar second half, but I still predict that hisoutput and consistency will severly decline. That said, he's still one of the best centers in the East.
PLAYERS ON THE WAY OUT/DOWN
Gary Payton
Clifford Robinson
Juwan Howard
Vin Baker
Eric Piatkowski
Aaron McKie
Michael Finley
Jalen Rose
Stephon Marbury
Shareef Abdur-Rahim
Theo Ratliff
Antawn Jamison
Cuttino Mobley
Jamison is the one anomaly - he's still playing at a very high level, and wil just miss making the All_star team. Everyone else on this list just needs to go away (yes, even Mobley - can anyone stand watching him? OMG!)
Overall, on player prediction, I think I did some fairly good prognosticating. I would be remiss though if I didn't mention the players that I totally overlooked.
KEVIN MARTIN
Where did this guy come from? I have to be honest - never thought he would be anything more than average at best. He's a great story though - a guy who really made the most of an opportunity to play.
Now...on to the teams - here is how I predicted the East:
EAST
New Jersey (4)
Boston (9)
Toronto (12)
Philadelphia (14)
New York (15)
Cleveland (1)
Chicago (3)
Detroit (5)
Indiana (7)
Milwaukee (10)
Miami (2)
Orlando (6)
Washington (8)
Charlotte (11)
Atlanta (13)
and here is how the East currently stands:
EAST
Toronto (4)
New Jersey (8)
New York (10)
Philadelphia (14)
Boston (15)
Detroit (2)
Cleveland (3)
Chicago (5)
Indiana (6)
Milwaukee (11)
Washington (1)
Orlando (7)
Miami (9)
Charlotte (12)
Atlanta (13)
SURPRISE TEAM: Obviously Toronto - I thought they might turn the corner, but not that fast
Boston and Miami have been killed by injuries so it's not a surprise that they are underachieving. The Celtics also have a terrible coach who has no clue, so that's not helping either...
I don't actually predict many changes, except i think that given the injur situation that Miami will bump New Jersey out of the playoffs. Yes that means I think the Raptors are going to hang on to that division lead. They have already survived a portion of the season without the fantastic Chris Bosh, and rookie Andrea Bargnani is improving daily.
here was my prediction for the West:
WEST
Utah (5)
Denver (9)
Minnesota (11)
Seattle (13)
Portland (15)
Phoenix (1)
LA Clippers (4)
LA Lakers (8)
Golden State (10)
Sacramento (12)
San Antonio (2)
Dallas (3)
New Orleans (6)
Houston (7)
Memphis (14)
and here is how it currently stands:
Utah (4)
Denver (7)
Minnesota (9)
Portland (12)
Seattle (14)
Phoenix (1)
LA Lakers (5)
LA Clippers (8)
Golden State (10)
Sacramento (11)
Dallas (2)
San Antonio (3)
Houston (6)
New Orleans (13)
Memphis (15)
Pretty close on this one - it's difficult to call th Hornets a disappointment when they've played half the seaosn without their top 4 scorers. I'm going to give them a mulligan. The Clippers have been disappointing, but they seem to finally be putting it together, as they have just moved into the 8th spot.
The real surprise is how far Dallas and Phoenix have separated themselves. The Mavericks, in particular, have been impressive, almost unbeatable, and that is something I did not expect.
That said, my Finals prediction was Phoenix over Cleveland, and I see no reason to deviate from that right now. Fact is, barring injury, I don't see how anyone can defeat the Suns in a series. They are playing at a level that is historically good. The Cavaliers are a good team, and the Suns completely dismantled them a couple of weeks ago, a beating that may be somewhat responsible for the team's current tailspin. I do expect the Cavaliers to right themselves and end up wiht the number one seed in the East - LeBron still has another gear he has yet to go into, and they have a fairly easy second half schedule, having already gone out west.
MVP - I thougth this would be LeBron's year, but let's face it - this is between Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki, with Kobe Bryant and Gilbert Arenas as darkhorse candidates. Nash probably should win, but Dirk should have last year, so I predict Dirk will take it down this year.
Rookie of the Year - I'm sticking with my prediction of Brandon Roy. He's really been the only rookei that's been consistently good. I've been very disappointed in Adam Morrison. In my opinion, Morrison's biggest problem is that he shelved his arrogance; he's deferring a bit too much. He needs to go back to telling people how unstoppable he is and dropping 40 on them.
and here were my league leader predictions:
1st team All-NBA:
G Steve Nash
G Dwyane Wade
F LeBron James
F Tim Duncan
C Yao Ming
2nd team All-NBA
G Chris Paul
G Kobe Bryant
F Andrei Kirilenko
F Dirk Nowitzki
C Dwight Howard
At this point, I would make a few minor revisions to the All-NBA teams. I'd swap Duncan with Nowitzki, and I'd replace Chris Paul and Andrei Kirilenko with Gilbert Arenas and Kevin Garnett.
Arenas has hit a whole new level. I thought that playoff loss, the way they lost, would set his confidence back a little bit, but I should have known better, kinwoing Arenas's history of doing the opposite of what people expect. He has been unreal, and he's carried his team along with him.
Besides Arenas, there have been other interesting subplots:
TERRIBLE MANAGEMENT
I can count at least 5 teams whose management has severly handicapped them: Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Golden State.
Do people even realize how bad Hawks management is? Let's review just the recent history:
2001 - Hawks trade two first round picks for Shareef Abdur-Rahim. Grizzlies take Pau Gasol with one pick, the Pacers get Jamaal TInsley with the other.
2003 - Hawks trade lottery pick for Glenn Robinson. Bucks take TJ Ford
2004 - Hawks draft Josh Childress #6
2005 - Hawks draft Marvin Williams #2 (bypassing Chris Paul and Deron Williams)
2006 - Hawks draft Shelden Williams #5
The Hawks also trade their 2007 pick to Phoenix, along with another 1st rounder *AND* Boris Diaw, for Joe Johnson. So even in acquiring their best player, they still got it wrong.
The beauty is that these moves are so obviously bad, I don't even have to write another paragraph explaining them. Let's move on...
We've already spent enough time making fun of Isiah Thomas, but consider this fact - the Knicks are almost capped out if you just consider players that AREN'T EVEN ON THE TEAM!!! Guys like Jerome Willams, Jalen Rose, Allan Houston, Maurice Taylor, etc.
The only trump card Kevin McHale has left in Minnesota is to botch a Kevin Garnett trade and really set that franchise back.
And I'm not sure why people think that Golden State/Indian trade was so great for Golden State. Indiana was the clear winner there. They got 3 quality players (Murphy, Dunleavy, and Diogu) who can all score, for a team who had prblems finding a consistent threat other than Jermaine O'Neal, and they also unloaded Stephen Jackson, who cold have gone insane at any moment. That's a win/win...there's a reason the Warriors haven't made the playoffs since CHRIS WEBBER WAS A ROOKIE!!!!!
Speaking of Webber - I understand his desire to play at home and that he might have a chance to get to the Finals with the Pistons, but he would have fit in best with the Lakers. He could have played the high post, and the triablge would have taken full advantage of his smarts and passing abilities. Plus, the Lakers are thin in the frontcourt due to injuries to Chris Mihm and Kwame Brown.
The Lakers have been amazing as is; despite injuries to Mihm, Brown, and Lamar Odom they are rolling along, due to the expected development that Kobe would be as stellar as ever, and the unexpected growth of young players like Luke Walton, Andrew Bynum, and Ronny Turiaf. Odom is just now coming back and is the type of player who can integrate himself seamlessly into the team concept. The Lakers should be a difficult out in the playoffs. They should be part of some of the more interesting playoff series, as I expect them to squeak past Utah in the first round and then give the Suns a real scare in Round 2 before succumbing. Utah is an fascinating story in themselves, with former star Andrei Kirilenko struggling and almost an afterthought at time, and yet the team is thriving behind the stellar play of Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer.
However, as well as the Lakers have been playing, and given that they have Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson, I will have to add them to my short list of teams that have any shot to win the title, the others being:
Phoenix
Dallas
San Antonio
Miami
Detroit
Cleveland
It's actually interestign to still consider Miami, who would not even be in the playoffs if the season ended today. But as long as they get into the postseason somehow, regardless of seed, they have to be considered a threat to come out of a weak conference. The other teams in the East may regret that they did not bury the Heat when they had the chance. Still, I'm not sure that they can recapture the same magic as last year - human nature says that the focus of so many of their key veterans will just not be the same, and to even lose just the tiniest edge can make a big difference.
The only reason any of these Eastern Conference teams have a chance is that the teams out West will be in such an all-out brawl just to survive that conference. Also, there is a question of style - to play Western teams for almost two months and then have to adjust for two weeks against a brute squad form the East, that could throw off timing, chemistry, etc. just long enough to change the outcome.
That said, I think ti's coming down to the Suns or the Mavericks. One of the most interesting sublots about this rivalry that seems to fly under the radar is that the Nash used to play for the Mavericks, and basically was allowed to leave because they didn't think he was worth the long-term dollars that the Suns were willing to dish out. Somehow, the Mavericks not only recovered from this gaffe, but actually ended up better off - they adjusted their style of play, a style that better suited the remaining players on the roster. It's a fascinating subplot that a team an let a 2-time, possibly 3-time MVP go to a major competitor and still make the NBA FINAls and possibly may still win the title this year. This is a real testament to the greatness of Nowitzki, and the coaching skills of Avery Johnson.
Regardless of which team brings home the trophy, this year's playoffs looks to have the same promise as last year's, which was arguably the best and most exciting in the history of the league. The West has 7 loaded teams, and the teams in the East are so even that it is bound to make more some close games and last-second heroics. Also, consider the great players that will be involved and have the opportunity to build on their reputations, and who are also chasing their first title: LeBron James, Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Webber, Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Jermaine O'Neal, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, and maybe, if we're lucky, Kevin Garnett...and while the season has had so many interesting stories and subplots already (the Iverson trade, the Knicks fiasco, the injuries to so many star players, the excellence of the Suns and Mavericks, the complete change of style by the Grizzlies seemingly overnight, the disparity betwween the conferences, and the strange ongoing saga of Arenas, just to name a few), the best stories are always written at playoff time, and they are written by the games themselves, and the players and their performances, whether extraordinary or dismal. Given that, it seems inappropriate to give any grade right now to anyone except for an incomplete; after all , the most important part of the journey, and the biggest weight to the grade (much like a final exam) has yet to be determined.
Of course, I'm just talking about the NBA. I'm giving myself a B+...ah, what the hell, an A-.....my 2002 Caron Butler prediction paying off so handsomely has me feeling quite arrogant, the standings are quite close to the order in which I predicted (except for missing on the Raptors, but hey, there's always one where I am way off), and I'm feeling pretty good about the phrase "the 2007 NBA Champion Phoenix Suns"...
And yes, I think the Cavaliers are still the best team in the East, wil get the top seed, and can make the Finals. So while Cavs fans can feel happy at that thought (and they will go nuts if the team makes its first finals appearnce), I don't see how the Cavaliers can take down any Western team for the title, at least not this team in its current state. Now, if a move is made, a trade of some sort, then maybe...but for now, Cavaliers fans, just get excited about the team's potential and the next step of growth, and trust that a title is on the way soon. And don't forget to enjoy the rest of the NBA, because there is some fantastic basketball being played all over the league. |
