| Time for a coronation - Cavaliers are the best team in the East Authored by Keith Berzanske - September 29, 2006 - 6:34 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that we’ve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, let’s look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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Of course, the words "coronation" and "coronary" are somewhat related, meaning the Cavaliers won't make it easy for their diehard fans. There will be agonizing defeats, bonehead plays, untimely injuries...anything to cause a Cleveland fan a heart failure previously synonymous with contending Browns or Indians teams. But now it is the Cavaliers who stand poised as the Cleveland franchise with the best chance to bring home the hardware. And of course, it all starts with the league's brightest young talent, 21-year old LeBron James. But everyone knows about LeBron already. So why are they overlooking the Cavaliers? Early reports from major sources, such as TOPN, um, I mean ESPN (sorry that whole Terrell Owens overkill fiasco this week had me momentarily confused), seem to have marked the Heat down for an easy repeat, at least in the East. Blinded by the hardware that the spectacular Dwyane Wade pretty much singlehandedly brought home to South Beach, fans and media alike have forgotten just how fragile the Heat were last year. It was no "given" that they would get out of the first round, much less win the championship. Many thought the Heat would be ousted by a feisty Nets team in Round 2.
The Heat are bringing back every player in their main rotation from last year, normally a good sign. But let's take a close look at exactly who they are bringing back:
---Alonzo Mourning and Gary Payton - Payton definitely should have retired, and while Mourning was a defensive force, it could be argued that he should have packed it in as well, given his medical maladies.
---Antoine Walker, James Posey, Jason Williams - these veterans, along with Payton, were desperately chasing a ring last year. However, each has a rep as a semi-notorious malcontent, and it's difficult for me to believe that these guys are going to keep their eyes as focused on the prize in year 2 of the Riley regime. I predict that a lot of selfishness and discord will seep through to the surface by playoff time and leave this team disjointed and vulnerable. Also, with age, the three point shooting percentages for this group will continue to drop.
---Shaq - even though he made 1st team all-NBA last year, he's not what he once was, and is declining rapidly. He now has 4 rings, including the one last year where he got to stick it to Kobe Bryant. I just don't see Shaq being in shape the entire year, even with Riley the drill seargent running the squad.
---Udonis Haslem, Wayne Simien, Dorell Wright - the youth, mostly unproven except for Haslem, who is a nice player who is unfortunately probably already as good as he is going to get. Wright is the intersting player to watch here - the Heat need him to step up and inject some youthful energy into a squad with otherwise tired legs.
---Dwyane Wade - the one player who could make all of these arguments a moot point because he can carry this whole team on his back for games at a time. But I just can't see it happening 2 years in a row.
Overall, the Heat appear more ripe for a decline than a repeat trip to the jeweler for ring fittings. And last year, the Heat finsihed the regular season with only 2 more victories than the Cavaliers, who have many more reasons to anticipate the continuation of their upward climb into elite status.
(1) Familiarity
Last year the Cavaliers had several significant new additions (Larry Hughes, Damon Jones, Donyell Marshall, not to mention coach Mike Brown, GM Danny Ferry, and new owner Dan Gilbert). Anderson Varejao had just got his feet wet as a rookie and took on a larger role last year.
This year, the Cavaliers are bringing back ostensibly the same squad, with the exception of last year's mid-season acquisition Flip Murray. Even with the injuries suffered by some key players last year, the players were able to get to know each other on the court and should be even more familiar this year and thus have better chemistry.
While only losing Murray, the Cavs have added David Wesley (similar player to Murray, only disadvantage being age), Scot Pollard, and rookie draftees Shannon Brown and Daniel Gibson.
The players should also be more familiar with the coaches and schemes, which can only mean better execution, especially in the 4th quarter.
(2) Health
In addition to the roster additions the Cavaliers have made, let's not forget the de facto additions resulting from the healthy return of injured players.
Luke Jackson's whole season last year was basically lost. With him returning, the team has added a versatile lottery pick, if they can find minutes for Jackson. I suspect that Jackson's game improves given more court time. Also, a healthy back will do wonders for a player of his style.
Larry Hughes missed over half of the regular season with a broken hand, and then several playoff games due to the tragic death of his brother. Don't read anything into the fact that the team played better in the playoffs while Hughes was out. They are a better squad with him in there. He was finding his way last year with new teammates - expect things to be much smoother this year.
Ira Newble is a key defender who also missed much of the year. There may not be minutes for Newble, which shows how deep the team has become. but it would be nice to have him to call upon in a pinch when key stops are needed or hot players need to be cooled off.
Anderson Varejao missed the first 30 games last year, but showed his value upon returning, especially in the playoffs. He will only continue to improve. He also seems to have developed a special chemistry with LeBron james, particularly on the pick and roll.
(3) Depth
While in perfect health right now, ther emay be injuries to key players. The Cavaliers can survive such injuries better than almost any team in the East, due to their superior depth. They showed this somewhat in last year's playoffs, when they took 3 straight from the Pistons despite the absence of Larry Hughes.
The current depth chart looks like this:
PG Eric Snow
SG Larry Hughes
SF LeBron James
PF Drew Gooden
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas
6-9
Donyell Marshall
Anderson Varejao
David Wesley
Luke Jackson
10-12
Scot Pollard
Aleksandar Pavlovic
Damon Jones
13-15
Shannon Brown
Daniel Gibson
Ira Newble
It's a pretty deep squad when your top two draft picks can't even crack your top 12, much less your top 9. Of course, Brown and Gibson will get time - other players will suffer injuries, or may decline in performance or fall out of favor with the coaching staff. Wesley, Snow, and Jones are all vulnerable; a major drop off from any of them would not be a huge surprise.
In my opinion, Eric Snow is a huge liability. on the offensive end, which does not make up for his excellent defensive skills. The team runs best with LeBron James ostensibly playing the point guard. This is where Wesley, Brown, or even Jackson or Pavlovic could help with their outside shooting. Pavlovic had just started to do well when he lost all his minutes to Flip Murray - the rumor was that he missed too many defensive assignments. If he can correct that, or if Jackson can return to the form he shwoed at Oregon before his back injury, the Cavaliers could be a juggernaut. That said, it would have been nice if they could have acquired a point guard in the mold of Steve Blake, rather than Wesley.
The addition of Pollard and improvement of Varejao will mean more rest for Ilgauskas, hopefully. He seemed worn out by playoff time last year. Perhaps the Cavaliers will move one of these extraneous backcourt palyers for more frontcourt help. Denver is a team with frontcourt assets that may be interested in a swap.
(4) Experience
The Cavaliers gained invaluable playoff experience last year int hat they learned that they could indeed win. In fact, they should have won the series against the Pistons. This year, if a similar situation arises, the team should respond and take care of business.
LeBron James also started to establish himself as a 4th quarter "go to guy", something that had been questioned of him during his first two years.
(5) Security
With Drew Gooden signed, everyone on the team is under contract - this team knows that they are going to war together. The only player in a precarious position is Luke Jackson, who could be traded if it is determined there are no minutes for himi. However, I would think that the Cavaliers would hang on to an obvious asset until they are forced to make a move. They still have Jackson for at least 2 more seasons to see what he can do, and now he should finally be healthy. It would be a mistake to move him too soon.
(6) LeBron James
Anytime you have one of the 5 best players in the league on your team (and regardless of who you think the other 4 are, LeBron is one of the 5), then you have a really good shot at making the finals. The cahnces are even better when your star player is an unselfish one like LeBron, one who makes his teammates better and who has their trust. Also, LeBron is even hungrier now that Wade, a player from his own draft class, reached the pinnacle first. Now their is an underlying "Wade vs. LeBron" angle to the Eastern Conference for the next 10 years.
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So let's break down the entire Eastern Conference, starting with the weakest teams:
---teams with no shot of making the playoffs
NEW YORK KNICKS
The Knicks are in awful shape. I think I already devoted a whole column to Isiah Thomas so I won't repeat myself. They have zero chacne of making the playoffs. ZERO
TORONTO RAPTORS
The Raptors have already started to retool quite nicely. How their team works out the next couple of years depends on Bargnani and how quickly he progresses. For this year, though, they are lottery bound. They really can't stop anyone. But they will be interesting to watch. Bosh is a solid player and TJ Ford will get him the ball in teh right places.
ATLANTA HAWKS
People keep talking up the Hawks, but no matter how much Marvin Williams improves, is he going to be better than Al Harrington was last year? Speedy Claxton is a huge upgrade, which is a bad statement about last year's point guards. I think the Hawks will improve but can't see them within 5 games of the playoff chase.
---teams probably bound for the lottery, but if everything goes right...
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
I actually like the Bobcats better than the Hawks for two reasons: Adam and Morrison...oh wait, that's one guy...
Morrison is going to be a stud scorer in the NBA, write it down. Also, the Bobcats have gotten more impact players with their lottery pics than the Hawks. Emeka Okafor is a shutdown center and Raymond Felton is developing splendidly at point guard. Throw in Gerald Wallace, the best defending swingman in the NBA, and Sean May, fully healthy and ready to mant he 4, and you have a really interesting starting 5. The Bobcats are also starting to get some depth, now that they've added international star Walter Hermann and now that Brevin Knight will be coming off the bench. Things are looking up in Charlotte.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
I never like to pick against Allen Iverson, but he realistically can't play any better than he did last year and they missed the playoffs. Then they went ahead and has the worst offseason in the Eastern Conference. They lost John Salmons, really added no one, and Chris Webber got a year older. This team is depending on Samuel Dalembert (the "Haitian Sensation"), Kyle Korver, and Andre Iguodala to develop into stud players. The 76ers really should have worked out a trade with the Hawks for Iverson. Webber is fairly untradeable, but they could have retooled with draft picks and some young players from the Hawks. When Iverson finally runs out of gas, the 76ers will be perennial cellar dwellars once again (well maybe not, they ARE in the same division as the Knicks...)
---bubble teams - likely to fall just short, but could sneak in
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Bucks took a playoff team and completely retooled the starting 5, an interesting move. I like Andrew Bogut at center, but I'm still not totally sold on Charlie Villanueva. Lots of guys have put up numbers on bad teams their rookie year and overinflated their value. Michael Redd is a star and Steve Blake and Mo Williams should be a successful tag team at the point. Look for them to return as a low seed if one of the teams above them stumbles or has a major injury.
BOSTON CELTICS
This is a bizarre team, a collection of extreme youth, and then you have Paul Pierce and Wally Szczerbiak. This team oculd be really good if Szczerbiak is healthy, and guys like Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson suddenly make "the leap" to the next level. But then again, Doc Rivers is their coach. Milwaukee has a similar problem - terry Stotts is their coach. That hire made zero sense...but I digress. Boston will be one of the mro interesting teams to watch because who knows which team will showup from night to night. Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the addition of Sebastian Telfair. Just wait for the circus that arises when Telfair fails to beat out Delonte West for the starting point guard job.
---bubble teams - probably playoff bound unless things go wrong
DETROIT PISTONS
Don't laugh, the Pistons are vulnerable. They have very little youth or depth, their vaunted starting five took a hit with the departure of Ben Wallace, and their other 4 starters have logged a LOT of minutes the past 4 seasons. The only reliable backup is Antonio McDyess, whose physical health is not what it was, and if either Billups, Hamilton, Prince, or Rasheed Wallace gets hurt, they are in trouble. Still, I think they are experienced enough to get to the postseason.
INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers should be interesting to watch this year. This will be the first year that Ron Artest will be a non-factor. Danny Granger had a nice rookie season and should start up front with Jermaine O'Neal and re-acquired Al Harrington. However, this team has too much tied into the health of point guard Jamaal Tinsley. This will probably be their downfall yet again this year.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
The Wizards are a tough team to figure out because their star is Gilbert Arenas, who is borderline insane, but who I would never wager against. He played LeBron toe to toe in the playoffs last year and has been underestimated going back to high school. The guy scored nearly 29 points per game last year and didn't make the All-Star team, which is nuts. Then he didn't make the USA travleing team for FIBA. This has to be getting under his skin. And Caron Butler may be the most underrated player in the NBA.
The Wizards problem is that they cannot play any defense, and they really haven't done much to address that in the offseason. I can't see them being any mroe than a first round playoff exit yet again.
ORLANDO MAGIC
I project the Magic as a playoff team this year, given their strong finish last year and the certain improvement of Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, and Darko Milicic. The addition of JJ Redick will be key as it will spread the floor, and anything from Grant Hill is gravy. The team is young and hungry, and there are always a couple of new teams each year, so pencil the Magic in for a spot.
---definitely in, barring a catastrohpic event
CHICAGO BULLS
The Bulls are the trendy pick to reach lofty heights this year, even picked to surpass the Cavaliers by some experts. Such nonsense...
Did anybody notice that Ben Wallace has been on the decline for 4 years now and that he can't play a lick of offense? Defense hasn't exactly been the Bulls problem. They have been small up front, and adding Wallace, PJ Brown, and Tyrus Thomas will help that. Still, Brown is also on the decline. I really think that the Bulls will regret giving up on Tyson Chandler so early. Young big men take awhile to develop. Ask the Trail Blazers if they'd like to have Jermaine O'Neal back. Chandler was already an excellent rebounder, so even developing passable offensive skills would have made him extremely valuable, and it's hard to believe he would not have done so. He should flourish in New Orleans.
The Bulls are deep and more experienced, with two mini-playoff runs. But they are not going to win the East. Think of it this way - the Pistons had Ben Wallace last year and got bounced by the Heat after nearly being eliminated by the Cavaliers. Why do we suddenly think that Hinrich, Gordon, Nocioni, and Deng are better than Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Rasheed Wallace? Common mistake by the media of overvaluing a free agent acquisition. Ben Wallace is an excellent defender and his championship experience will be invaluable to a young team, notably Tyrus Thomas. But he's on the decline and will be considered grossly overpaid in 2 years.
NEW JERSEY NETS
The Nets are an interesting team - they can beat anyone on any given night due to the extreme talents of Jason Kidd and Vince Carter, and the fantastic third banana Richard Jefferson.Young center Nenad Krstic has also been a pleasant find. Unfortunately for the Nets they have almost no depth, even after drafting reasonably well. Last year's pick Antoine Wright contributed next to nothing - he'll need to give them something this year. They could be the team most apt to trade for forntcourt help - maybe Kenyon Martin could return? This team is too talented not to win the East unless there is an injury. Vince carter's impending free agent status hangs over this team. If Jason Kidd goes down injured or the team gets off to a horrible start for whatever reason, the team might consider moving Carter and rebuilding. In such a weak division though, I can't see that happening. I think they will ride what they have and hope to sign Carter after the season.
MIAMI HEAT
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
We already talked about the Heat and the Cavaliers, who will likely meet in the conference finals in what could be a preview of many future LeBron James / Dwyane Wade showdowns for supremacy in the East. The Cavaliers are one of the few teams that match up with the Heat, as they can somewhat offset Shaq with the presence of Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Ilgauskas is the best slow player in the the history of the league, recently surpassing former champion Rik Smits in our evaluation of such nonsensical trivia.
So while the bottom of the eastern Conference playoff picture has become more interesting with the emergence of yougn teams like Boston, Charlotte, and Orlando, the top seems to be a bit clearer. The Cavaliers are ready to rise up and claim the Eastern Conference crown, with King James ready to make yet another mark on NBA history. |
