| NBA Draft recap - is there ever a 'bad pick'? Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 29, 2006 - 2:31 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that weve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, lets look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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We can go back to as recently as 2002 and see that a lot of these players show up as frogs more than princes. Check out that first round:
1) Yao Ming - Houston
excellent pick
2) Jay Williams - Chicago
"can't miss" prospect couldn't miss...a utility pole, anyway...
3) Michael Dunleavy - Golden State
decent player, but hardly measures up to past overall 3rd picks
4) Drew Gooden - Memphis
Found a niche in Cleveland, but his 3rd team already and may be headed for a 4th
5) Nikoloz Tskitishvili - Denver
Already on 2nd team and will probably be out of league here
6) DaJuan Wagner - Cleveland
I can't even discuss this pick without lava spewing from my mouth...needless to say, out of the NBA already
7) Nene Hilario - Denver
decent player - now coming off ACL surgery
8) Chris Wilcox - LA Clippers
Underachieved for 3 years, but may have found a home after being traded to Seattle.
9) Amare Stoudemire - Phoenix
stud, best pick of the draft
10) Caron Butler - Miami
Butler was a steal and has been a solid performer but he is also on his third team already
11) Jared Jeffries - Washington
decent bench forward
12) Melvin Ely - LA Clippers
went in the expansion draft, doesn't even start for Bobcats
13) Marcus Haislip - Milwaukee
sadly, I called this correctly too - terrible pick, out of league already
I could go on and on but why bother - that's just the lottery! You've got 2 All-Stars (Yao and Stoudemire), 1 reliable player (Butler), 4 inconsistent serviceable players (Gooden, Dunleavy, Wilcox, Nene), 2 bench guys (Ely, Jeffries), and 4 guys pretty much out of the league (Wagner, Williams, Haislip, and Tskitishvili)...and this is the LOTTERY!
Other first round immortals that year were Bostjan Nachbar, Jiri Welsch, Casey Jacobsen, Chris Jeffries, Frank Williams, Ryan Humphrey, and Curtis Borchardt...ouch!
You cna go through every draft and find such examples (some years being better than others), which means that this year will be no different. So in 4 years, which players will be exposing NBA defenses and which will simply be exposed?
Let's recap the draft:
No. 1: Raptors, Andrea Bargnani
No. 2: Trail Blazers, LaMarcus Aldridge
No. 3: Bobcats, Adam Morrison
No. 4: Bulls, Tyrus Thomas
No. 5: Hawks, Shelden Williams
No. 6: Trail Blazers, Brandon Roy
No. 7: Timberwolves, Randy Foye
No. 8: Grizzlies, Rudy Gay
No. 9: Warriors, Patrick O'Bryant
No. 10: Sonics, Saer Sene
No. 11: Magic, J.J. Redick
No. 12: Hornets, Hilton Armstrong
No. 13: Bulls, Thabo Sefolosha
No. 14: Jazz, Ronnie Brewer
That wa the lottery
I'm going to project Morrison as a definite star, Thomas, Aldridge, Roy, and Foye as probable stars or high quality starters, Bargnani as average but occasionally brilliant, Williams as dependable but average, Gay and Brewer as disappointments, Redick as Redick, and of the other guys I'll say that one of them will be OK, the rest terrible.
No. 15: Hornets, Cedric Simmons
No. 16: Sixers, Rodney Carney
No. 17: Pacers, Shawne Williams
No. 18: Wizards, Olexsiy Pecherov
No. 19: Kings, Quincy Douby
No. 20: Knicks, Renaldo Balkman
No. 21: Celtics, Rajon Rondo
No. 22: Nets, Marcus Williams
No. 23: Nets, Josh Boone
No. 24: Grizzlies, Kyle Lowry
No. 25: Cavs, Shannon Brown
No. 26: Lakers, Jordan Farmar
No. 27: Trail Blazers, Sergio Rodriguez
No. 28: Mavericks, Maurice Ager
No. 29: Knicks, Mardy Collins
No. 30: Trail Blazers, Joel Freeland
These picks fascinate me - let's say for a minute that Renaldo Balkman is a really good player. Isiah - you pick again at 29! Take Marcus Williams at 20 and Balkman at 29 - no one else wanted Balkman.
There are a lot of guards here who really don't belong as first round NBA draft picks - they just won't be consistent contirbutors to winning teams. Rondo, Ager, Collins - all overrated. Joel Freeland? Does that sound like an NBA player to you? Quincy Douby scored a lot of points, but his shooting percentage wasn't high, his team didn't win tons of games, and the three point line is 4 feet further back in the NBA. Didn't Shannon Brown underachieve at Michigan State? Did I miss something? I mean, if Brown, Ager and Paul Davis are all NBA players, why didn't the Spartans fare better the last 2 years? New Orleans has two picks in the top 15 and ends up with Hilton Armstrong (4th best guy on his own team) and Cedric Simmons (never watched a game and said, "wow, check out Cedric Simmmons, he is making the difference"?
Sometimes I think that NBA GM's either outsmart themselves or just aren't that smart.
players that moved in trades involving first round picks:
Chicago gets Viktor Khryapa from Portland
Boston gets Sebastian Telfair and Theo Ratliff from Portland
Portland gets Dan Dickau and Raef LaFrentz from Boston
Phoenix gets a future 1st round pick from Boston
Houston gets Shane Battier from Memphis
Memphis gets Stromile Swift from Houston
I've tried to get away from grading 'winners' and 'losers' but there were some things that made me think...
--why didn't Atlanta trade down and still get their guy? Obviously there were teams who wanted Roy and Foye. Why didn't they make the Telfair deal or a similar one. all their best player play the same spots and they have now picked 6, 2, and5 the last 3 yeras and come away with Josh Childress Marvin Williams, and Shelden Williams. Hmmm....
--what is this talk about AI and the Celtics? There's no way Iverson and Paul Pierce can exist together. NO WAY. Atlanta or Minnesota would make much more sense for Iverson.
--Stromile Swift has to be a bit ticked at having to go to Memphis, don't you think? I mean the guy signs a free agent deal to play with Yao and McGrady and gets sent back to where he was?
--I really liked what the Trail Blazers did with all their moves
--The Isiah Thomas fiasco has reached a new level. I mean, I saw this coming 3 years ago, but I didn't see THIS coming, ya know? He's even exceeded MY expectations...
--IF you work for the Heat do you do anything on draft day? Try to trade back into the draft? Drink tequila on the beach with bikini models? Hmmm....
--Orlando, Charlotte, and Cleveland are the up and coming teams in the East, with Cleveland already there really. Chicago has the pieces, but must make the right moves now.
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