| NBA Draft Preview: Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 27, 2006 - 8:01 pm
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With scouting the way it is now, it's hard to find real sleepers but what teams hope for is that a guy that they think is merely pretty good really turns out to be great, a la Dwyane Wade or Gilbert Arenas. Some teams may go the foreign route, willing to wait a couple of years if their prospect can become a Manu Ginobili or Andrei Kirilenko. The bottom line is that the teams that contend usually draft extremely well. The Suns are a prime example of getting value lower in the first round year after year. Now Bryan Colangelo is with the Raptors and he's actually armed with a high pick - can he work the same magic?
Let's take a look at the prospects(top 5 at center, top 10 at other positions):
POINT GUARD
Marcus Williams
Randy Foye
Jordan Farmar
Kyle Lowry
Sergio Rodriguez
Rajon Rondo
Dee Brown
Daniel Gibson
Mardy Collins
Darius Washington
CREAM OF THE CROP - Marcus Williams is an outstanding playmaker. Randy Foye is a terrific combo guard, who may be ideally suited as a third guard rather than a starter. Jordan Farmar will be one of the finds of the bottom half of the first round. Had he stayed in school, he may have gone in the top ten next year.
SLEEPER - Darius Washington should have stayed in school, but he's got skills. As with any 'bubble'player, it's important that he ends up in the right situation.
OVERRATED - Rajon Rondo is one of those tantalizing athletic prospects that comes up every year, Playing point guard, however, is about leadership and making your teammates better, and Rondo is well behind the curve. Mardy Collins is also overrated - what did Temple accomplish during his stay?
SHOOTING GUARD
Brandon Roy
JJ Redick
Ronnie Brewer
Shannon Brown
Mike Gansey
James White
Thabo Sefolosha
Maurice Ager
Quincy Douby
Hassan Adams
CREAM OF THE CROP - Roy is far and away the best shooting guard here. My concern with Roy is whether he does any one thing exceptional or if he is just solid all-around. He'll definitely be a quality player for years, but how high is the ceiling?
SLEEPER - Mike Gansey is just one of those guys that always seems to be making a play. He has the look of a quality bench guy.
OVERRATED - Maurice Ager's scoring won't translate into the pros. And while James White continues to stun with his athleticism, he's really never performed at a high level. Looks great in workouts though.
SMALL FORWARD
Adam Morrison
Rudy Gay
Rodney Carney
Shawne Williams
Cedric Simmons
Marcus Vinicius
Louis Amundson
PJ Tucker
Steve Novak
Renaldo Balkman
CREAM OF THE CROP - Morrison is the best player in the draft. He's the best scorer and the most competitive. Obviously he's not Larry Bird, but let's say worst case scenario is that he's Mike Miller (and that's a stretch). That's pretty darn good.
SLEEPER - Marcus Vinicius is an intersting player from Brazil that can do a variety of things.
OVERRATED - PJ Tucker's game doesnt' translate to the NBA. And I don't think you can teach the things that Rudy Gay is missing. I hope I am wrong because Gay is a fabulous talent, but I think he will always be sort of a disappointment. Kind of like how we always thought Jamal Mashburn should be a lot better.
POWER FORWARD
Andrea Bargnani
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Paul Davis
Leon Powe
Josh Boone
Craig Smith
Alexander Johnson
Oleksiy Pecherov
Kevin Pittsnogle
CREAM OF THE CROP - Bargnani is no Tskitishvili. He's a quality talent.
SLEEPER - Josh Boone may be a better pro than he was in college. He's used to playing with superstars and knowing his role. Paul Davis is better than people think, and hopefully will end up on the right team. Leon Powe has the talent, and if the knee holds up he might make some teams regret they passed on him.
OVERRATED - Shelden Williams is a decent player, but he's not really top 10 material. Think of the power forwards in the NBA, and then think of Shelden Williams.
CENTER
LaMarcus Aldridge
Patrick O'Bryant
Saer Sene
Hilton Armstrong
Ryan Hollins
CREAM OF THE CROP - Aldridge for some reason is not getting the love that he should. He is the other player that Toronto is considering. But all we hear is the negatives - bottom line is that Aldridge is a solid pivot man who will add on to his frame. He knows his place down low and he has a good temperament. And he is a winner.
SLEEPER - Hilton Armstrong's improvement has been exponential - look out if it continues. Unfortunately, it may taper off if he doesn't get minutes.
OVERRATED - Saer Sene has wowed in workouts, but right now doesn't have any offensive game and could not contribute too much immediately. A few years from now, maybe he'll live up to his billing. I don't see him as a bust, but I also don't see him as the next Olajuwon.
In my mind, there is a top tier of players in the draft:
Morrison, Roy, Aldridge, and Bargnani are the first tier
Gay, Thomas, O'Bryant, Carney, Foye, and Marcus Williams are the second tier
Redick, Brewer and Shelden Williams are in the third tier
Everyone else can be considered a serious question mark, although I like players like Jordan Farmar, Paul Davis, Leon Powe, Shawne Williams, and Saer Sene better than the others available.
MOCK DRAFT
(1) Andrea Bargnani - Toronto
(2) LaMarcus Aldridge - Chicago
(3) Adam Morrison - Charlotte
(4) Tyrus Thomas - Portland
(5) Shelden Williams - Atlanta
(6) Rudy Gay - Minnesota
(7) Marcus Williams - Boston
(8) Brandon Roy - Houston
(9) Patrick O'Bryant - Golden State
(10) Randy Foye - Seattle
(11) Rodney Carney - Orlando
(12) Ronnie Brewer - New Orleans
(13) Cedric Simmons - Philadelphia
(14) JJ Redick - Utah
(15) Saer Sene - New Orleans
(16) Mardy Collins - Chicago
(17) Hilton Armstrong - Indiana
(18) Shawne Williams - Washington
(19) Oleksiy Pecherov - Sacramento
(20) Rajon Rondo - New York
(21) Marcus Vinicius - Phoenix
(22) Leon Powe - New Jersey
(23) Sergio Rodriguez - New Jersey
(24) Kyle Lowry - Memphis
(25) Jordan Farmar - Cleveland
(26) Josh Boone - LA LAkers
(27) Shannon Brown - Phoenix
(28) Paul Davis - Dallas
(29) Alexander Johnson - New York
(30) James White - Portland
I will add details about these players tomorrow as the draft approaches the zero hour...there are obviously some "bubble" players who could sneak into the bottom of the first round...
Note that where I think they will be drafted does not necessarily reflect where they SHOULD be drafted.
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