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Cavaliers and Wizards prepare to duel

Authored by Keith Berzanske - April 20, 2006 - 11:57 am

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The Cavaliers first playoff series since 97-98 will be against the Washington Wizards, and should be one of the better first round matchups. Lots of subplots abound:

The first playoff appearance for LeBron James
The first playoff appearance for the management regime of coach Mike Brown, GM Danny Ferry, and owner Dan Gilbert
Larry Hughes takes the court against his former team, who he helped lead into the second round last year.
Gilbert Arenas, maybe the league's most overlooked superstar, can showcase his skills against LeBron James in a national spotlight.
Caron Butler's emergence as a force - will it continue on the bigger stage?

So there are plenty of reasons to watch the Cavaliers and the Wizards do battle, but what one important aspect that will often go unmentioned amongst the hyperbole is this - these teams will play hard-fought, entertaining basketball and you can expect it to be a very close series, one that may come down to the waning moments of Game 7.
In theory, the Cavaliers should have a huge edge, based on the following:

They won 50 games; the Wizards only won 42
The Cavaliers should have everyone back healthy, including Luke Jackson - this has not happened all year. Cleveland is deeper than ever - a lineup of Snow, Hughes, James, Gooden, Ilgauskas, and a formidable bench of Jones, Murray, Marshall, Varejao, Jackson, Newble, and Pavlovic. There's no dead weight here. Meanwhile, the Wizards are still without Jarvis Hayes, and Butler is just coming off an injury (although it didn't seem to affect his play much in the regular season finale when he racked up 33 points and 12 rebounds). Still, the Cavaliers are healthier and deeper.
The Cavaliers have the better superstar - LeBron James
The Cavaliers have a lot more size, and should wear the Wizards down over time

However, the Wizards have more playoff experience, having beaten the Bulls last year. They also have Arenas, who is not the kind of player you like to bet against, and they have a smart seasoned coach in Eddie Jordan.
But the real reason to suspect that the series will go the full 7 games is the simple fact that Cleveland teams rarely make it easy for their fans. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cavaliers lose one of the first two games at home and then have to claw back by winning one in Washington. They may lose a game at the buzzer. Cleveland fans are meant to agonize, biting our nails more than LeBron does during timeouts, agonzing over memories of Jim Chones' broken foot, Michael Jordan's shot {shots?}, Brad Daugherty's back...I won't even include the Browns and Indians here. Bottom line is that for Cleveland fans, there are no easy victories.
However, I do think that the Cavaliers will eventually prevail over the Wizards and meet the Pistons in round 2. This is LeBron James's coming out party and he is playing at a new level, a level the Wizards just have no answer for. Not in a 7-game series. Also, when LeBron was out, his teammates showed that this is not a one-man crew. The addition of Flip Murray was huge for this team. Larry Hughes was able to get significant minutes and work out the kinks since returning from injury. Anderson Varejao has just gotten better and proven he can handle more time. And Z is, well Z is just big and he's difficult to guard.
The key for the Cavaliers is not how they handle Arenas, who will shine, but how much they let Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison beat them. Jamison has gone off on the Cavaliers before and he presents a difficult matchup, but Butler is the player who is emerging as a star. This could be his coming out party as well. However, I think it will end in a loss for him.
The Cavaliers weak link is still at point guard. But I think that they have enough elsewhere to overcome this soft spot. The offense runs through LeBron most of the time anyway. Cavaliers fans should get out and support the home team and remember: yes, this team will test your patience. You will agonize. They will lose one they should win. Then they will win one they should lose. They are a Cleveland team. Embrace them. Embrace LeBron James; the face of the NBA is wearing a Cleveland Cavaliers uniform and will be for the next 20 years. And that is a beautiful thing - it's finally Cleveland's turn to be in the spotlight.
Now, for all of my playoff predictions: EAST ROUND 1 Detroit vs. Milwaukee PREDICTION: DETROIT 4-0 The Bucks are talented and did good to make the playoffs but they don't have a chance here. They might steal a game at home if the Pistons get bored.
Miami vs. Chicago PREDICTION: MIAMI 4-1 Bad matchup for the Bulls, even if they are on a roll. Not enough size to deal wiht Shaq, and Zo might even be able to sit this series out.
New Jersey vs. Indiana PREDICTION: NEW JERSEY 4-2 Indiana just has too many injuries. They can win two games just on depth, guile, and coaching, but I can't see them getting past the Nets.
Cleveland vs. Washington PREDICTION: CLEVELAND 4-3 Home court advantage will be the difference here. Cavaliers will lose one early at home, then win one in Washington, and then hold serve.
ROUND 2 Detroit vs. Cleveland PREDICTION: DETROIT 4-2 Pistons too much for King James and crew in round 2, but a good warmup for the Cavaliers - should speed up the learning curve and help in years to come.
Miami vs. New Jersey PREDICTION: NEW JERSEY 4-3 My only Eastern upset - I think the Nets can take it on the road, the key being the play of Nenad Krstic. I just don't like the way this Heat team is constructed, and they won't be challenged enough in the first round to get in the right frame of mind. Dwyane Wade/Vince Carter duel should be awesome.
Conference Finals Detroit vs. New Jersey PREDICTION: DETROIT 4-2 Pistons are a team with a mission, and will end a nice run by the Nets. For the record, it's all about matchups - I think that Cleveland could also take down the Heat.
WEST
ROUND 1 San Antonio vs. Sacramento PREDICTION: SAN ANTONIO 4-3 Sacramento is one of the best 8 seeds I can remember, going 27-14 since acquiring Ron Artest. What a difference. But they can't topple the Spurs.
Phoenix vs. LA Lakers PREDICTION: PHOENIX 4-2 Kobe has really turned it on, and I think he can will them to two victories. Guys like Smush Parker and Kwame Brown will show their stripes here, although I think ti will be a good learning experience for both. Steve Nash is too good though - Suns will run them silly.
Denver vs. LA Clippers PREDICTION: hmmmm man, I have been waffling on this one... OK, I'm taking the Nuggets in 7 - I'm basic picking the big play ability of Carmelo Anthony to trump the big play ability of Sam Cassell. Of course, this pick is contingent on Marcus Camby playing all 7 games...
Dallas vs. Memphis PREDICTION: Dallas 4-2 Everyone thinks Memphis is going down in 4 or 5, and I think they are being underestimated by everyone, so I'm going to say 6. Dirk vs. Pau is a good matchup.
ROUND 2 Phoenix vs. Denver PREDICTION: Phoenix in 5 The Suns will run the Nuggets out of the building. KMart might be forced to amputate his knee. Phoenix is one team not bothered by Denver altitude.
San Antonio vs. Dallas PREDICTION: wow... I'm taking Dallas in 7. The Spurs have somehow limped their way to a fantastic regular season but I think they are vulnerable. Duncan is not the regular Duncan this year, and I think Avery Johnson will figure out a way to slow up Tony Parker. Of course, this pick involves winning game 7 on the road, not sure I like that, hmmmm...well it doesn't matter because...
Conference Finals Phoenix vs. Dallas PREDICTION: Phoenix in 7 I'm taking the Suns in the West no matter who they face. Yes this contradicts all basketball logic, but then again, so do the Suns, so does Steve Nash, and don't even get me started on the physics behind Shawn Marion's jump shot. I can already picture Mark Cuban sitting behind the Mavs bench with a contorted look of agonizing pain as Steve Nash hits a huge three in game 7 to clinch the victory. I really think the Mavs and Spurs will take a lot out of each other in Round 2, which is to the Suns advantage regardless of which team they face. Also, both the Mavs and SPurs are banged up, while Phoenix is relatively healthy (not cotning Amare)
and that makes for an interesting FINALS Detroit vs. Phoenix PREDICTION: Detroit in 7 Detroit is the team this year. I only think the Suns will win 3 games because their style is something the Pistons aren't used to and because I think Shawn Marion completely neutralizes Tayshaun Prince. Great point guard battle also between Nash and Billups.
AWARDS I will save the MVP for my column tomorrow, as it requires some deep thought - how to choose between LeBron James, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Chauncey Billups?
All-NBA 1st team: G Steve Nash G Kobe Bryant F LeBron James F Dirk Nowitzki C Shaquille O'Neal 2nd team: G Chauncey Billups G Dwyane Wade F Shawn Marion F Elton Brand C Ben Wallace 3rd team: G Tony Parker G Gilbert Arenas F Carmelo Anthony F Tim Duncan C Yao Ming Honorable Mention (Ocean's 11): Kevin Garnett Chris Bosh Vince Carter Jason Kidd Michael Redd Allen Iverson Pau Gasol Chris Paul Dwight Howard Paul Pierce Andrei Kirilenko Rookie of the Year: Chris Paul This might be the easiest rookie of the year voting in several years... Bad year for the rooks overall though... All-Rookie team: 1st team: Chris Paul Andrew Bogut Raymond Felton Charlie Villanueva Channing Frye 2nd team: Danny Granger Deron Williams Ryan Gomes Marvin Williams David Lee Defensive Player of the Year: Ben Wallace Most Improved Player: Boris Diaw Coach of the Year: Avery Johnson