| The two "obs" Authored by Keith Berzanske - November 21, 2005 - 7:02 pm
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Using the two 'obs' was the philosophy of Private Eye Daryl Zero in one of the 90's most underrated films, 'Zero Effect'. Zero, expertly played by Bill Pullman as the world's greatest private detective, also unfortunately is totally devoid of social skills, and therefore must rely on objectivity and observation to analyze people and situations and solve crimes (the movie also features an exceptional turn by Ben Stiller as Steve Arlo, Zero's front man). While I was struggling to write my season preview column, I popped in this movie, one of my old favorites, and as I was watching it I realized that I was not relying on my own objectivity and observation as much as I should. So I ordered the NBA League Pass and decided to take a couple of weeks and watch the teams around the league. No preconceived notions, no judgments - just observe what was happening and make objective determinations about the 2005-2006 NBA season.
Here's what I've noticed:
(1) The East has a gap between the haves and the have-nots.
Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana, and Miami are definite playoff teams.
5 teams will be fighting it out for the remaining 4 spots: New Jersey, Philadelphia, Washington, Milwaukee, and Chicago.
Boston has just lost too much (basically they need stellar outings from Ricky Davis and Raef LaFrentz to win consistently - you want to count on that? Didn't think so), and Charlotte is headed in the right direction but doesn't have enough yet. As for Orlando, Altanta, Toronto, and New York, well, it's going to be a long season. These teams should hang it up now and play their young guys to get them experience, liek the Bulls did a couple of years ago.
For example, if you're the Knicks, here's your starting lineup:
PG Nate Robinson
SG Quentin Richardson
SF Trevor Ariza
PF Channing Frye
C Eddy Curry
David Lee and Jamal Crawford ashould be your first guys off the bench. Trade Stephon Marbury for whatever you can get, as long as you can get draft picks. Antonio Davis, Penny Hardaway, Malik Rose, Maurice Taylor - these guys don't even need to see the floor. What's the point?
{By the way, it's laughable how many experts pegged the Knicks as a playoff team just because they got Larry Brown. Did anyone look at this roster? What a joke}
Toronto should go the same route as the Knicks - play the young guys:
PG Jose Calderon
SG Joey Graham
SF Chris Bosh
PF Charlie Villanueva
C Rafael Araujo
Of course, this may remind them that they drafted Araujo, Graham, and Villanueva with their last 3 draft picks...not to mention Bosh who, while being a fine player, is no Dwyane Wade. Villanueva has been better than we all thought; then again, how difficult is it to rack up numbers for a terrible team (Damon Stoudamire rule)?
And speaking of Raptors, what happened to Jalen Rose? in 2000 in Indiana, he seemed to have turned the corner and become a game changer, an All-Star, a crunch time scorer. Ever since the Pacers traded him to the Bulls, he's been unreasonably average. He's one of those guys that should go back and watch film of himself and figure out what he's doing differently. He's a bit older, but should still have the skill set to be more consistently stellar.
Meanwhile, Atlanta continues to strike out. Sure Joe Johnson is having a decent year, but the experiment at point guard is already proven to be a failure. Worse, he's making max money, the team is still winless, and Boris Diaw, the guy thrown to Phoenix in the Johnson deal, is having a season on par with Johnson. Plus the Hawks are out two first round picks, and they ousted the only guy in ownership who realized that Phoenix was ripping them off. Meanwhile, Marvin Williams has talent, but the Hawks, in dire need of a poitn guard, could really use Chris Paul.
Let's phrase the whole thing this way - which lineup would you rather have: Paul, Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Al Harrington, Zaza Pachulia, with Diaw coming off the bench, or Tyronn Lue, Johnson, Smith, Harrington, Pachulia, with Childress and Marvin Williams coming off the bench. Not only is the lineup in the first scenario better, you'd also still have two first round picks and 70 million dollars to spend. But hey, what do I know? I hate to sound like the Sports Guy here, but what is going on with some of these NBA GM's? Are Isiah Thomas, Billy Knight, and Rob Babcock in some kind of bizarro fantasy league we don't know about?
Orlando has Dwight Howard. There's not much else to say about them. Poor guy...
Now, back to the contenders:
Washington is very interesting. They seem to have successfully replaced Larry Hughes and Juan Dixon with Caron Butler and Antonio Daniels, and they're getting more from Jarvis Hayes and Jared Jeffries. They have a legitimate stud in Gilbert Arenas and a rock in Antawn Jamison. Butler could blossom into an All-Star and this may be the right situation. This team should make the playoffs. Jamison's knee is a concern, but he looks good so far.
The last spot may come down to the Bucks and the Bulls simply because it's hard to imagine that all 5 teams from one division could make the playoffs, since the competition is so tough and they will be beating up on each other while the Nets, 76ers and Wizards are playing games against the Hawks and Raptors.
I love what the Bucks are doing, and if any of the other teams have a player suffer a signifcant injury (i.e. Allen Iverson, Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, Gilbert Arenas, etc.) they'll take advantage. But the Bulls have a certain mental toughness and Ben Gordon hasn't even kicked into gear yet. I love their versatile 3 guard rotation of Gordon, Chris Duhon and Kirk Hinrich, who can be mixed and matched at will. The Bucks are not as good on defense, don't have as much depth, and there's the question of TJ Ford's durability and Andrew Bogut's consistency. After Bogut and Magloire, the frontcourt is thin.
The Bucks are actually better than either the Nets or 76ers but one of those teams will win the weak Atlantic and the other has enough star power to make a push.
(2)The Performers
ALL-STARS
G Allen Iverson
G Dwyane Wade
F LeBron James
F Jermaine O'Neal
C Ben Wallace
bench
Gilbert Arenas
Paul Pierce
Chauncey Billups
Richard Jefferson
Vince Carter
Dwight Howard
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Of course, if Shaq comes back soon enough, he'll probably get Z's spot.
The East is guard heavy - look at the guys that didn't make the first cut:
Jason Kidd
Steve Francis
Richard Hamilton
Michael Redd
Ron Artest
but hey, someone's got to be left out. Chris Bosh also deserves consideration, but players on teams who win less than 15% of their games don't generally make the All-Star team. Antawn Jamison is the other forward who might get a spot, at the expense of either Carter or Jefferson. Oh, and Chris Webber desreves a spot, but I'm certain he'll get overlooked simply becasue he doesn't look as pretty as the 'old Chris Webber'.
PLAYERS ON THE RISE
Andre Iguodala - really showing his versatility, a perfect complement to Iverson
Dwight Howard - I can't wait until he actually gets some offensive moves
Michael Sweetney - Bulls got best player in the Curry trade
Channing Frye - told ya he wasn't soft
Maurice Williams - one of the best backup point guards in the league, and still only 22
Kirk Hinrich - one of my personal favorites just to watch
PLAYERS ON THE WAY OUT
Penny Hardaway - it's a shame that his body has failed him, because he still has a great basketball mind
Tim Thomas - what a waste
Gary Payton - not much left
Jiri Welsch - keep hearing about how great he is, but I'm just not seeing it
DaJuan Wagner - oh wait, he's already out of the league...
The Cavaliers biggest problem in the East is that since they are unlikely to overtake Detroit, they are likely doomed to the 4-5 seed. This in all probability means a matchup with the Pacers, a ridiculously tough first round opponent. Of course, to win in the playoffs, you have to go through tough teams. And hopefully we're getting to the point where some of the other teams are thinking, "Hey, we really dont' want to play Cleveland". Let's not look too far ahead - the team is on a roll, they look terrific (nice to see some other players picking up the slack when LeBron has his rare off moments), and they are definitely playoff-bound. Enjoy the run!
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Look tomorrow for my breakdown of the Western Conference, which is a bit more complicated... |
