| Mock Draft starts well, then shot to hell Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 29, 2005 - 2:34 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | 2008-09 Season Preview: Southeast Division Between Beasley, Howard and Horford there are no shortage of talented big men, but what kind of seasons will Wade, Gilbert, Johnson, and Rashard have?
The Best Team Money Can Buy?Reina builds around Superman, Flash, and Boozer while Perna trots out King James, Nash, West, and Jax. Who has the better team worth $58.68M?
 |
Countdown To Take-Off
Over the last few seasons, the Rockets have opened new seasons with skyscraper expectations, only to disappoint over and over again year in and year out. Can this season have a different ending or will this be another year plagued by injuries and turmoil?
|
 |
The Mavs' Problem Child
Josh Howard is a gifted player that is developing and improving all the time, but there is mounting evidence to show that his brain isn’t maturing at the same rate as his game.
|
 |
Mark Your Calendars
We may not know exactly who will be on the court when the season tips off for the Pacers on Oct. 29 against the Pistons, but we have a good idea of what the most interesting matchups will be.
|
|
More from RealGM's Columnists
|
| |
It's a time for exciting new talent to come into the league. It's an opportunity for an NBA GM to change the entire direction of his franchise with one masterstroke. I could write an entire column about how the draft day trade of Chris Webber for Penny Hardaway changed the future direction of at least 4 franchises and, through the domino effect, probably about 80 players.
Today, however, I will talk about my favorite topic that comes up every year at draft time. Not even a topic really, but a question.
How do some of these idiot GM's keep their jobs?!!!
HOW?!!!
Every year there are no less than 5 moves that just downright baffle me. There are always at least 2 players that slide down the board so far that it makes me wonder if some GM's actually even watch basketball. This year was no different.
I first discovered this phenomenon when I was 14, attempting to do my first mock draft in 1986. I had received a subscription to the Sporting News for my birthday and upped my dedication to watching as much college basketball as possible while somehow still juggling my chores, no easy feat given my father's propensity for creating an seemingly endless amount of yard work and home omprovement projects. That year I was armed with more information than ever before. But I made a critical mistake, which I continued to stubbornly make through my college years.
I actually did my mock draft based on who I thought the best players were, rather than on where they might be taken.
So years later, when guys like William Bedford had eaten there way out of the league and Doug Smith was driving the snack truck, and players like Mark Price and Tim Hardaway were tearing it up, I was vindicated. But no one remembered years later. All they remembered was that the day of the mock draft, I had been way off.
Then I had an epiphany - it's a lot easier to actually predict where the players WILL be selected and then just make fun of the teams that take overrated players too high and give kudos to those that get steals late in the draft.
This is also surprisingly fun, especially after things like the whole DaJuan Wagner debacle. And people seemed to remember the analysis and that I had pegged some things correctly. But still, one thing bothered me.
I still couldn't get the damn mock draft near correct.
Granted it was a lot closer, and the players were more in the general area. And I would usually have 52-55 of the 60 players, with 25-28 of the first rounders pegged. But they weren't in the right places. Every year, GM's just do things that baffle me. Like select a player at a position where their three best players already play, even thought hey have other glaring holes. And hey, that might be OK, except that the player selected isn't even the best available at that position, much less on the board. GM's overlooking guys that can play based on something they saw one day in a workout from an unknown. The list goes on and on.
This year was no exception. The mock draft started well, and then went all to hell.
(1) Andrew Bogut - Milwaukee
my pick: Bogut
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: No brainer pick. Milwaukee had a glaring need at center and Bogut was obviously one of the top 5 players, even if you had him rated as low as he could have been. I think he will be a stud, I love his mental makeup and he's got a versatile game.
(2) Marvin Williams - Atlanta
my pick: M Williams
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: I'm probably one of the few guys not drinking the Marvin Williams koolaid. I think the guy will be a very good player, but I don't have him pegged as a 'can't miss superstar'. I'm just not sure he can be the leader of a team or that he has the competitiveness, the mean streak necessary to win at all costs. Williams will have a long career, but in my opinion, considering the hype, will be a disappointment.
That said, I've been wrong before. The last stud player I was wrong about was Paul Pierce. Just did not think he would be THAT good. However, I did not know that Pierce would later cheat death after a stabbing incident, which I'm sure had some effect on his psyche.
I also think Atlanta missed a golden opportunity to fleece some team in a trade that had fallen in love with Williams. The Hawks have so many holes, and so many teams wanted Williams, that it seems like they could have made something go down that made it worth their while. Unless, of course, Williams is one of those 'top 20 guys in the league, game changer' types, which they must believe he is. I should note that Williams is extremely likable, marketable, and has a good work ethic. I think there's a subtle difference between a guy with multiple All-Star appearances, and the same guy with a killer instinct who takes over games and wins them. Of course, either would help the Hawks.
Look for Al Harrington to be traded. The two Josh's aren't going anywhere. Also, since Williams is still a work in progress, the Hawks should be the worst team in the East again and will probably pick near the top next year as well.
(3) Deron Williams - Utah
my pick: D Williams
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: this was the most obvious pick, after the deal went down between the Blazers and the Jazz. I actually originally had Williams going 6 to the Jazz. He was just one of those guys where you looked at him and knew which team he belonged on, and the basketball god knew it too and made it happen. Great player, perfect fit.
(4) Chris Paul - New Orleans
my pick: Paul
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: I had figured out a cople of days ago that Paul was going to the Hornets and originally I did not like it, although I love Chris Paul. Just thought with the development of Dan Dickau, the Hornets could have helped their team more by going with Danny Granger, or trying to trade up for Marvin Williams. Then I thought about it some more and realized that Dickau is a free agent. If they let him they'll still have Speedy Claxton as a backup, and have extra money to spend elsewhere. Paul is an exciting player and will make the other Hornets better. With David West and Jamaal Magloire returning from injury, and JR Smith with a year under his belt, the Hornets could make a dramatic improvement.
(5) Raymond Felton - Charlotte
my pick: Gerald Green
where I had the player: 13
my reaction: This one pained me, because I originally had Felton here. Then I talked myself into the fact that if the Hornets took Green or Granger, Felton would probably slide to them at 13 anyway, given who was drafting after them.
That said, I like the pick. Felton is an outstanding lead guard and being a UNC player certainly can't hurt for marketing purposes. There will also be plenty of good players left for the Bobcats to choose from at 13.
(6) Martell Webster - Portland
my pick: Webster
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: I also expected this when the trade went down, and I think this is an excellent pick, based on what I know about Webster. Portland needed a shooter, needed a reliable two guard, and needed someone who was mature and level headed. Webster is all three.
The Blazers are sort of overlooked, but it shoudl be noted that they've taken high school studs three years in a row and they also have Zach Randolph who is still only 24 and has proven to be a 20/10 go to guy. In three years they could be fielding a young dominant team of Sebastian Telfair, Webster, Travis Outlaw, Randolph, and Joel Przybilla. If everyone pans out, that is.
So far, no real surprises...
(7) Charlie Villanueva - Toronto
my pick: Danny Granger
where I had the player: 15
my reaction: WHAT?!!!
This one flabbergasted me. The Raptors have many needs. Even if there are going to ignore those and go best player available, even if they take that a step further and go big forward despite having their best player, Chris Bosh, already entrenched at that spot, there is no way that Villanueva should have been the guy in any of those scenarios.
Danny Granger was a sure thing, probably the best player on the board. Gerald Green would have filled a need and been a potential stud. Even if they are thinking power forward or swing forward, I'd have to say that Hakeem Warrick is hands down a better selection, and that arguments could be made for even Fran Vasquez, Ike Diogu, Sean May, and possibly even Wayne Simien, David Lee, or Ronny Turiaf. And what about Channing Frye? He might actually even be able to play center?
Throw in the fact that Villanueva has a questionable work ethic, and I think the Raptors really whiffed here.
(8) Channing Frye - New YOrk
my pick: Andrew Bynum
where I had the player: 9
my reaction: I thought that Frye should go here, but was sure that Isiah Thomas would try to go out of the box. I hate to say it, but I really like the pick. If the Knicks could just get rid of Stephon Marbury, they might be able to win some games.
(9) Ike Diogu - Golden State
my pick: Channing Frye
where I had the player: 25
my reaction: I'm not totally sold on Diogu, but the Warriors did need some size and he certainly has that. Diogu was one of the hardest players to place, and I thought he might drop into the 20's but the Warriors really liked him so they pulled the trigger. He'll certainly have every opportunity to prove that he can contribute, and he won't be relied upon as a scoring option, so this may be the right situation for Diogu.
(10) Andrew Bynum - LA Lakers
my pick: Hakim Warrick
where I had the player: 8
my reaction: This didn't surprise me as much as it did some - Bynum had really gotten in shape and he has legitimate size, so I knew someone in the 7-15 range would take a shot. Of course, this won't help Kobe and Lamar Odom much this year, but with Phil Jackson back, the Lakers may be able to make a mark in free agency anyway.
I originally thought Warrick would be good because his talents would really be suited for the triangle offense.
(11) Fran Vasquez - Orlando
my pick: Vasquez
where I had the player: exact
my reaction: was stoked that I got another one right (turned out to be the last one on the button)
I wish I knew more about Vazquez. I'm anxious to see him play. He does fill a need on a size-deprived Magic squad.
(12) Yaroslav Korolev - LA Clippers
my pick: Antoine Wright
where I had the player: 26
my reaction: {choked on soda}
Boy are the Clippers dumb.
Hello, you're trying to make the playoffs!!! We all heard for weeks that the Clippers made a promise here, but who really thought it was true. Made no sense whatsoever...
Granger would have been perfect, or if you're looking for an outside shooter off the bench, Wright, Garcia, or McCants would fill the bill.
The Clippers will regret this pick 4 years from now when Shaun Livingston opts out of his contract and goes to a team with a clue.
The Clippers are like that team in your fantasy league that donates $50 every year and occasionally looks like they might put it together but never does.
{Can you tell that this pick annoyed me?}
(13) Sean May - Charlotte
my pick: Sean May
where I had the player: 16
my reaction: I was a little disappointed in the Bobcats here, as they blew a golden opportunity to take a potential stud and went with May, the safe pick, who is local and should be a solid player if he can keep his weight under control.
This is the point in the draft where I also got annoyed that Cleveland did not have a pick. Granger, Green, and Warrick are all studs and are floating lower and lower and here at 13 is where the Cavs should have been picking. Granger, for example, is already 3 times the player that Ira Newble is. Or imagine Warrick on the break with LeBron?
Damn you, Jim Paxson...
(14) Rashad McCants - Minnesota
my pick: Francisco Garcia
where I had the player: 20
my reaction: I figured this would either be Garcia or McCants, since Sprewell is outta there. Just guessed wrong.
I'd also note here that once players start to slide they continue because teams in this area have not worked them out. I'll guarantee, for example, that Gerald Green enver worked out for the Timberwolves. He though he was going top 7!
McCants can shoot it and should become a serviceable 6th man, as Wally Szczerbiak moves back into the starter role (where he belongs)
(15) Antoine Wright
my pick: Charlie Villanueva
where I had the player: 12
my reaction: This cost me $6, as I bet my friend $5 that the power forward starved, run and gun Nets would select the tailor made Warrick, and then another $1 that even if not Warrick, definitely one of the '4's. So now I'm out 6 bucks and Antoine Wright has to figure out how to get minutes. Are the Nets entering a 6'7" and under league? Did I miss something? Did Richard Jefferson's wrist actually get cut off like Anakin Skywalker? What's going on?
Add to that my opinion that Wright is overrated and that this is one of the deepest power forward drafts in recent memory and I think the Nets really screwed up the pick here.
(16) Joey Graham - Toronto
my pick: Jarrett Jack
where I had the player: 19
my reaction: So now here Rob Babcock has a chance to redeem himslef for the Villanueva pick, and I mean really redeem himself; the two guys that he inexplicably passed on, Granger and Green, are still sitting there, waiting!
So, of course, the Raptors select Joey Graham.
Joey Graham is a solid player, but Granger does everything that he does and more and better. This might not be a whiff, but it's still a foul ball.
Maybe the NBA inclided something in the new CBA I am not aware of that immediately bequeaths Steve Nash to Canada, and thus the Raptors.
(17) Danny Granger - Indiana
my pick: Sean May
where I had the player: 7
my reaction: Finally...
and the rich get richer...
This pick made me chuckle, because my friend Mike said "He can just take Reggie Miller's minutes", which hadn't even occurred to me because all I could think about was Granger being insurance in case Ron Artest went insane. Granger is very similar to Artest, except he lives in reality.
Not sure how any swingmen will score on the Pacers if these two are on the court together...
(18) Gerald Green - Boston
my pick: Roko Ukic
where I had the player: 5
my reaction: A Green for the green
Danny Ainge's whole draft strategy is to wait for all of the stupid people to pass on talent and then see who slides to him. Considering this pick and last year's selection of Al Jefferson, I'd say that it is working pretty well.
I think it took Boston about 10 seconds to make this pick, which would have made it difficult for Memphis except that their pick was just as obvious...
(19) Hakim Warrick - Memphis
my pick: Joey Graham
where I had the player: 10
my reaction: Warrick was the last guy in the green room and sat through his whole interview with Stuart Scott with the look that Paul Pierce trademarked, which basically says "I know who all of you are that decided that these other schmucks are better than me, and you will pay for your lack of judgment". Or maybe it was closer to Darth Vader, who simply said "I find your lack of faith disturbing...", just without the heavy breathing.
Warrick is actually the first guy that ESPN showed film on that actually had the 'WOW' factor, meaning, "WOW I can't believe he just did THAT!" I'm sure those that hadn't previously been exposed to Warrick were wondering how he lasted this long. He is one of my favorite players, and while he may initially be part of a logjam for minutes in Memphis, I think eventually many teams will regret passing on Hakim Warrick.
(20) Julius Hodge - Denver
my pick: Rashad McCants
where I had the player: 28
my reaction: I really like Hodge, a versatile player and a winner, but I'm not sure if this is the best situation for him (unless he's planning on play the 2). Still, it never hurts to have too much talent, and Denver has another pick at 22 to burn
(21) Nate Robinson - New York
my pick: Johan Petro
where I had the player: 41
my reaction: initially I was flabbergasted, as this pick belonged to Phoenix, but then it became apparent that this selection was made for the Knicks. That made more sense, as they had no real backup for Marbury (Jamal Crawford is NOT a point guard!). My only problem with Robinson is his size, which I think will prevent him from being a full time lead guard. But he's got NBA ability. And man, can he jump.
(22) Jarrett Jack - Portland
my pick: Martynas Andriuskevicius
where I had the player: 16
my reaction: This baffled me for two reasons - Denver still was in desperate need of a shooter, and Francisco Garcia would have been a good value here. Also, they then pretty much gave Jack away to Portland for 2 lower picks, and I wasn't sold on either of the guys they got at those selections. I think Denver tried to get a little too creative here. Sometimes it is just best to stay put.
Portland, meanwhile, made out like bandits. Jack is a solid point guard, and either he or Telfair will emerge as a starter for sure. If they both do, one can be traded for other assets. No downside.
(23) Francisco Garcia - Sacramento
my pick: Chris Taft
where I had the player: 14
my reaction: Not sure Garcia is what the Kings needed, but they might be in 'best player available' mode here and he certainly is talented. He'll have some good teammates to learn from and won't be expected to carry a scoring load right away. How much time he gets will depend on Bobby Jackson's health and whether Cuttino Mobley returns.
(24) Luther Head - Houston
my pick: Wayne Simien
where I had the player: 27
my reaction: I'm not really sold on Head as much more than a role player, and I think the Rockets would have done better by getting a legitimate power forward like Simien or Turiaf here. Is head really better than David Wesley or Jon Barry, except for being younger?
(25) Johan Petro - Seattle
my pick: Ike Diogu
where I had the player: 21
my reaction: Seattle was definitely going for size, and Petro is as good a gamble as any at #25. They also could have gone for Turiaf, Simien, or Chris Taft, but at this spot in the draft you take the guy you like, and tehy saw something in Petro. I have no beef with that.
(26) Jason Maxiell - Detroit
my pick: Yaroslav Korolev
where I had the player: 38
my reaction: This pick may have been made just to annyo Darko. Do the Piston really need Maxiell? They could have used a swingman or a backup point guard a lot more. Maxiell struck me as one of those players who is better in workouts than actual games. He's got good size and can rebound, but I'm not sure he'll even crack the rotation here.
(27) Linas Kleiza - Denver
my pick: Luther Head
where I had the player: 45
my reaction: Kleiza wins this year's "John Salmons" award, as in, 'nice guy, played 4 years of school, versatile set of skills, dont' remember him ever really impacting a single game, but looks great in workouts'. I mean, in 4 years, did you ever watch a Missouri game and think, 'wow, Linas Kleiza really made the difference today!'.
I thought not...
(28) Ian Mahinmi - San Antonio
my pick: Julius Hodge
where I had the player: NA
my reaction: This annoyed me simply because Mahinmi was a late riser who I ommitted from my board entirely, simply because I don't like guys who I have never heard of and then a week before the draft start showing up in online rumors. However, I will resist temptation to make fun of the Spurs because I did that when they took both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili and we all saw how that turned out. Of course, I think I made fun of Parker because he was French, so I'm not sure that counts...
(29) Wayne Simien - Miami
my pick: Mickael Gelabale
where I had the player: 24
my reaction: Simien lucked out here - if playing with Shaq makes Udonis Haslem look so god, what will it do for Simien. I'm not in love with Simien simply because I dodn't think he's as good as the Kansas guys before him, Drew Gooden, Nick Collison, and Raef LaFrent, and they are average to above average pros at best. But here's a prime example of a guy going to a good situation that will highlight his strengths.
(30) David Lee - New York
my pick: Ersan Ilyasova
where I had the player: 34
my reaction: I like Lee more than most, but not sure if he really fits with the Knicks. New York could have really used a swingman here, with Allan Houston ready to be jettisoned. Or they could have taken a risk with a third pick here and gambled on the potential of an Andray Blatche or Monta Ellis.
I dont' think the New York crowd liked this pick much...
All in all, the first round had some interesting twists. I always enjoy the second round because there are only two minutes between picks, so there's a lot more chance for chaos. So I'll evaluate the second round tomorrow. The best part about writing a column rather than having a radio show is that I don't have to learn how to pronounce all of the international players' names. That gives me lots of free time to wonder about guys like Rob Babcock, and how they get their jobs, and how their whole job all year long can be scouting players and evaluating talent and they still waffle it up.
-----------------------------------------------
If you have a comment for Keith, write him at nothingbutnet44@hotmail.com |
