| Updated Mock Draft w/ Player Evaluations Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 23, 2005 - 4:08 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that we’ve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, let’s look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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I have also added player evaluations for the top players at the guard positions. Also, I had the chance to speak to potential draftee Dijon Thompson and he had some interesting things to say, so be sure to give that a read.
GUARANTEED LOTTERY:
Bogut, Andrew Utah
Felton, Raymond North Carolina
Frye, Channing Arizona
Granger, Danny New Mexico
Green, Gerald high school
Paul, Chris, Wake Forest
Vasquez, Fran foreign
Williams, Deron Illinois
Williams, Marvin North Carolina
Wright, Antoine Texas A&M
GUARANTEED FIRST ROUND:
Andriuskevicius, Martynas foreign
Diogu, Ike Arizona State
Ellis, Monta high school
Graham, Joey Oklahoma State
Ilyasova, Ersan foreign
Jack, Jarrett Georgia Tech
May, Sean North Carolina
McCants, Rashad North Carolina
Petro, Johan foreign
Taft, Chris Pittsburgh
Villanueva, Charlie Connecticut
Warrick, Hakim Syracuse
Webster, Martell high school
so that's 23 first rounders that are pretty much definite
LATE FIRST/EARLY SECOND:
Blatche, Andray high school
Bynum, Andrew high school*
Garcia, Francisco Louisville*
Gomes, Ryan Providence
Hodge, Julius North Carolina State*
Korolev, Yaroslav foreign*
Miles, CJ high school
Morris, Randolph Kentucky
Simien, Wayne Kansas*
Thompson, Dijon UCLA
Turiaf, Ronny Gonzaga*
Ukic, Roko-Leni foreign*
Winston, Kennedy Alabama
*- likely to fill out first round
PROBABLE SECOND ROUND:
Banks, Sean Memphis
Basden, Eddie Charlotte
Diener, Travis Marquette
Ewing, Daniel Duke
Gelabale, Mickael foreign
Gilchrist, John Maryland
Head, Luther Illinois
Jones, Dwayne St. Joseph
Kleiza, Linas Missouri
Lee, David Florida
Marshall, Rawle Oakland
Maxiell, Jason Cincinnati
Rivera, Filiberto UTEP
Roberson, Anthony Florida
Roberts, Lawrence Mississippi State
Robinson, Nate Washington
Simmons, Tre Washington
Stoudemire, Salim Arizona
Taylor, Donell UAB
Wade, Tirus Louisiana-Lafayette
Walsh, Matt Florida
Williams, Louis high school
Wright, Bracey Indiana
OTHER POSSIBILITES FOR SECOND ROUND:
Anderson, Alan Michigan State
Akindale, Deji Chicago State
Blankson, Odartay UNLV
Bynum, Will Georgia Tech
Coppenrath, Taylor Vermont
Fischer, D'or West Virginia
Ford, Sharrod Clemson
Gigli, Angelo foreign
Hayes, Chuck Kentucky
Ilic, Mile foreign
Johnson, Amir high school
Lorbek, Erazem foreign
Miles, Aaron Kansas
Muhammed, Isma'il Georgia Tech
Myles, Ellis Louisville
Pasalic, Drago foreign
Pierce, Pierre Iowa
Randolph, Shavlik Duke
Schenscher, Luke Georgia Tech
Thomas, Chris Notre Dame
Wafer, Von Florida State
Williams, Jawad North Carolina
The players have been broken the players into groups based on the information I have gathered regarding which teams are interested in which players; now let's see if an actual draft can be constructed:
MOCK DRAFT (updated 6/24)
1 Bogut, Andrew - Milwaukee
2 Paul, Chris - Atlanta
3 Williams, Marvin - Portland
4 Granger, Danny - New Orleans
5 Green, Gerald - Charlotte
6 Williams, Deron - Utah
7 Felton, Raymond - Toronto
8 Vasquez, Fran - New York
9 Frye, Channing - Golden State
10 Villanueva, Charlie - LA Lakers
11 Diogu, Ike - Orlando
12 Wright, Antoine - LA Clippers
13 May, Sean - Charlotte (from Cleveland)
14 Taft, Chris - Minnesota
15 Warrick, Hakim - New Jersey
16 Webster, Martell - Toronto (from Philadelphia)
17 Graham, Joey - Indiana
18 Jack, Jarrett - Boston
19 Andriuskevicius, Martynas - Memphis
20 McCants, Rashad - Denver (from Washington)
21 Petro, Johan - Phoenix (from Chicago)
22 Ilyasova, Ersan - Denver
23 Turiaf, Ronny - Sacramento
24 Ellis, Monta - Houston
25 Simien, Wayne - Seattle
26 Korolev, Yaroslav - Detroit
27 Garcia, Francisco - Utah (from Dallas)
28 Hodge, Julius - San Antonio
29 Ukic, Roko-Leni - Miami
30 Bynum, Andrew - New York (from Phoenix)
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31 Morris, Randolph - Atlanta
32 Blatche, Andray - LA Clippers (from Charlotte)
33 Gomes, Ryan - New Orleans
34 Thompson, Dijon - Utah
35 Stoudemire, Salim - Portland
36 Robinson, Nate - Milwaukee
37 Wade, Tirus - LA Lakers (from New York)
38 Maxiell, Jason - Toronto
39 Gilchrist, John - LA Lakers
40 Winston, Kennedy - Golden State
41 Lee, David - Orlando
42 Ewing, Daniel - LA Clippers
43 Williams, Louis - New Jersey
44 Gelabale, Mickael - Orlando(from Cleveland)
45 Kleiza, Linas - Detroit (from Philadelphia)
46 Diener, Travis - Indiana
47 Head, Luther - Minnesota
48 Taylor, Donell - Seattle (from Memphis)
49 Bass, Brandon - Washington
50 Roberts, Lawrence - Boston
51 Gigli, Angelo - Utah (from Chicago)
52 Rivera, Filiberto - Denver
53 Walsh, Matt - Boston (from Sacramento)
54 Banks, Sean - New York (from Houston)
55 Wright, Bracey - Seattle
56 Miles, CJ - Detroit
57 Lorbek, Erazem - Phoenix (from Dallas)
58 Simmons, Tre - Toronto (from Miami)
59 Marshall, Rawle - Atlanta (from San Antonio)
60 Basden, Eddie - Philadelphia (from Phoenix)
There are several possible trades that will of course throw everything into disarray. If Atlanta decides that Marvin Williams can play the 4, they may take him and then trade Al Harrington to fill their hole at point guard. Or the Hawks may trade down and another team may grab Williams at the 2. Portland is the most likely candidate to trade down. The Lakers may make the first surprise pick at 10 because it's not clear who will be on their team come opening day and in which direction they will go.
PLAYER EVALUATIONS
***note that I have rated the college players only. I have seen very little film on the high school players and foreign players, so I can't really evaluate their games. However, from what I have seen, I would agree with most 'experts' that Gerald Green is the best high school prospect and that Fran Vasquez is the best player from overseas, now that Tiago Splitter has pulled out of the draft.
POINT GUARD
(1) Chris Paul - Wake Forest
I love Paul's all around game and leadership skills. I have him ranked slightly above Williams because of his athleticism and ability to get others involved creatively. Paul is bigger than most people think and is mentally tough.
(2) Deron Williams - Illinois
Williams is ranked slightly above Felton because of his ability to be a shut down defender. Williams has slimmed down a bit since college, but should be able to retain the physical strength that made him a tough matchup. Smart player.
(3) Raymond Felton - North Carolina
Felton has great raw talent, but what keeps him rated third is his lack of consistency. However, I have no doubt that in 5 years he will be firmly entrenched as a starting point guard in the NBA. He did answer a lot of questions last year with his improved outside shooting and UNC's run to the title.
(4) Jarrett Jack - Georgia Tech
There is a big dropoff after Jack, who is the only other surefire future starting point guard in the draft. One of Jack's strengths is that he rarely forces anything that is not there, and he is a good leader.
(5) Nate Robinson - Washington
The biggest question about Robinson is his size, which means he'll probably end up coming off the bench.
(6) Daniel Ewing - Duke
Ewing has flown under the radar, much like former teammate Chris Duhon is, but he is better than people realize. He's not the defender or all around player that Duhon was, but is a better shooter and a decent floor general.
(7) John Gilchrist - Maryland
Gilchrist will be able to stick as a backup in the right situation.
(8) Travis Diener - Marquette
The knock against Diener is his athleticism, which could hurt him on the defensive end. He knows that game and can shoot. Needs to gain strength.
(9) Chris Thomas - Notre Dame
Thomas may actually end up being better suited for the pro game than he was at the college level - he is certainly the sleeper of the draft at point guard. It will be interesting to see how his game works with more talented teammates.
(10)Filiberto Rivera - UTEP
Decent prospect - small school / level of competition questions more valid at point guard and center than at other positions.
SHOOTING GUARD
(1) Joey Graham - Oklahoma State
NBA body - needs to continue to work on outside shot. Outstanding defender.
(2) Francisco Garcia - Lousiville
Garcia's a solid player who just needs to become more consistent. Could end up being a Richard Hamilton type or a Latrell Sprewell type, but also could flame out if he loses his confidence.
(3) Antoine Wright - Texas A&M
Wright is one of my overrated players. He looks good on paper, but I dont' recall him ever being a 'game changer' at Texas A&M. If you're going to use a lottery pick, you want to get an impact player, not just an average NBA shooting guard. That said, Wright has some good skills and should have a future in the NBA; I just don't see him as a superstar.
(4) Rashad McCants - North Carolina
McCants is an enigma. He's also a little bit smaller than most NBA shooting guards, so while he is a good athlete and a great shooter, he may find it more difficult to get his shot off in the NBA. The bottom line is work ethic - is he going to go all out at full speed all the time? Is he going to be able to handle a reduced role when he comes into the league? This things are question marks. But if he gets hot from the outside, look out!
(5) Salim Stoudemire - Arizona
Stoudemire has a future in the NBA as a Steve Kerr type spot up shooter. Woud be perfect coming off the bench for a team like Cleveland that has slashers but few shooters. Not big enough to be a regular two guard and doens't have the skills to be a regular point guard. Still, he has range.
(6) Bracey Wright - Indiana
Wright is similar to Stoudemire, except that while not as deadly from three point range, he has a more versatile offensive repertoire. Still, he is undersized and not the best defender.
(7) Eddie Basden - Charlotte
Basden is a good defender - a big strong guard similar to the late Bobby Phills who may end up becoming a consistent offensive threat at some point. Worth a chance in the second round.
(8) Von Wafer - Florida State
I don't think Wafer will get drafted, but he's one of those players that could eventually work his way into the league afte rplaying elsewhere. He's got NBA schools and has improved exponentially since he was 16. For some reason, it went bad for him at Florida State, as his minutes were sharply reduced at the end of the year.
(9) Luther Head - Illinois
Head is a solid player, but also the bad kind of tweener. He ws also the third best guard on his own team and because of this did not get the opportunity to develop as either a 1 or a 2, as most of his peers did.
(10)Tre Simmons - Washington
I inadveratntly omitted Tre from my original analysis. I think that he is a good NBA prospect whose versatility may enable him to stick with a team.
There are a lot of good high school guards, notably Gerald Green. These guys will push the college guys down, notably the fringe prospects.
SMALL FORWARD
(1) Marvin Williams - North Carolina
Marvin Williams has a lot of tools and is clearly the best small forward prospect in the draft, and it's possible he could end up at power forward. Worst case scenario, he's probably Al Harrington or Robert Horry; best case, he ends up being a more aggressive, consistent, calm version of Rasheed Wallace, or a version of Antawn Jamison with more range. In other words, a force. Williams deferred a lot at North Carolina, which is a sign of maturity, but it would have been nice to see him take the team on his back his sophomore year to see how he responds in that role. Much of the evaluation of Williams is based on his potential. The player I really like to compare Williams to is Corey Maggette, who was in a similar situation coming out of college; however, Williams is bigger, longer, and seems to be a better outside shooter.
(2) Danny Granger - New Mexico
Granger is simply a basketball player who already does many of the same things that Marvin Williams is projected to do. He has terrific size and a versatile game and could end up going as high as #4. He had a great career and led an otherwise nondescript New Mexico team to success.
(3) Julius Hodge - North Carolina State
Hodge is a point forward in the Jalen Rose mold. He does a little bit of everything and last year carried a marginally talented NC State team into the Sweet Sixteen. Hodge needs a more consistent jumper and is not the best athlete (really needs to put on weight) at small forward, but he knows the game and does those intangible things that help a team. A player probably hurt by staying in school, just because he had to do so much, scouts were able to pick on his weak spots.
(4) Kennedy Winston - Alabama
Winston is a solid guard but his effort is in question. He'll light it up one night and then float aroudn the next. He's got a lot of tools, and if he ends up in the right situation could turn out to be a contributor.
(5) Dijon Thompson - UCLA
Thompson is very similar to Winston except he's an even better offensive player. However, he may be even less interested in defense. Thompson does have the skills to play both ends, so he is another case of a player that needs to end up in the right situation. Bothe Winston and Thompson have NBA talent, and if they apply themselves should be able to carve out a niche in the NBA as 6th men.
(6) Ryan Gomes - Providence
I'm not sold on Gomes, who I think is the wrong kind of 'tweener' (as opposed to Hakim Warrick, who I think is the right kind of 'tweener'). He's probably one of thsoe players who I'll look at 5 years from now and say 'boy was I wrong, that guy can play', much like Tayshaun Prince.
(7) Linas Kleiza - Missouri
Kleiza is a good defender and has been a hot name, but I don't ever recall him doing anything noteworthy at Missouri. I'm always wary of players like this - I call it the 'John Salmons' effect.
(8) Odartay Blankson - UNLV
Blankson is my sleeper player - I like him a lot. He may not make the league right away, but eventually he should end up there. He never seems to be rated as high as other guys, but alway outplays them.
(9) Matt Walsh - Florida
Walsh is a crafty player who I just don't think can survive the grind in the NBA. He's a smart player who's a good shooter and excellent passer, but he won't be able to guard anyone and I'm not sure he'll be able to create his own looks. Walsh may have hit his ceiling.
(10)Isma'il Muhammed - Georgia Tech
Muhammed is an athletic freak who excels at very little except making highlight film dunks and getting offensive rebounds. That said, he has the tools to be an excellent defender and can certainly finish on the break. If he coudl develop any kind of court sense he might end up as a Darvin Ham type contributor.
POWER FORWARD
(1) Hakim Warrick - Syracuse
(2) Ronny Turiaf - Gonzaga
(3) David Lee - Florida
(4) Sean May - North Carolina
(5) Charlie Villanueva - Illinois
(6) Ike Diogu - Arizona State
(7) Wayne Simien - Kansas
The top 7 guys here are very hard to rank in any specific order. All should be good complementary players at power forward, but none will become dominant forces a la Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, or more recently, Tim Duncan, Jermaine O'Neal, and Amare Stoudemire.
Each player has a glaring weakness - with Simien it is his toughness, with Villanueva it is his effort and court sense, with May it is conditioning, with Lee it is defense, with Diogu it is the "black hole syndrome", and with Turiaf, well, I just think he should have racked up bigger numbers, so I'll say assertiveness. Basically, what I'm saying is that there are a lot of Charles Oakley/Dale Davis types who will certainly have careers in the league, but who are unlikely to be perennial All-Stars and game changers.
Warrick is the possible exception. His supposed weakness is lack of offensive game besides dunks and putbacks, but I think he has actually developed an underrated post game and I think he's the right kind of 'tweener' - too quick for power forwards, too explosive and physical for small forwards. He's also a terrific defender. Warrick is the only one I see that could develop into a perennial All-Star, which is why I have him ranked first.
Considering these guys and the high school and foreign prospects, it's a very deep draft at power forward.
(7) Brandon Bass - LSU
(8) Jason Maxiell - Cincinnati
(9) Lawrence Roberts - Mississippi State
CENTER
(1) Andrew Bogut - Utah
I love Bogut and the way he carries himself. He knows he's going to be the number one pick and he's prepared to play and act like it. It doesn't hurt that he has excellent passing skills and the ability to score in a variety of ways. Oh yeah, and he's Australian, which is great because now when we talk about good Australian centers, we won't have to mention Luc Longley.
(2) Channing Frye - Arizona
I thought Frye was very underrated, but people seem to be catching up to just how good he is. I'm not sure why he is considered 'soft'. Great offensive game, and no slouch on defense.
(3) Randolph Morris - Kentucky
Morris is one of my sleepers; I think he is rated lower by most since he did not exactly light it up at Kentucky. However, I think he was misused there = probably the wrong place for him. He could really develop into an excellent player in the right situation. Atlanta owuld be hard pressed to pass on this hometown product if he is still sitting there at the top of round 2.
(4) Chris Taft - Pitsburgh
The knock on Taft is his consistency and effort. Also, he needs to develop a go to move on offense.
(5) Luke Schenscher - Georgia Tech
Schenscher would be an interesting NBDL project who could one day become a very functional backup center.
(6) Taylor Coppenrath - Vermont
Sometimes being tall is just not enough. Nice college player, but not enough game for the NBA. |
