| NBA Draft Preview Authored by Keith Berzanske - June 16, 2005 - 4:36 pm
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There are two ways to analyze the draft - actually ranking the prospects based on ability, and then doing a 'mock draft' which notes where each player might expect to be selected. The two methods seldom have players in the same order, due to the bumbling ineptitude of certain NBA GM's and scouts. We'll start with the mock draft, since it will introduce the prospects, and then we will reorder these prospects appropriately.
GUARANTEED LOTTERY:
Bogut, Andrew Utah
Felton, Raymond North Carolina
Frye, Channing Arizona
Granger, Danny New Mexico
Green, Gerald high school
Paul, Chris, Wake Forest
Vasquez, Fran foreign
Williams, Deron Illinois
Williams, Marvin North Carolina
Wright, Antoine Texas A&M
GUARANTEED FIRST ROUND:
Andriuskevicius, Martynas foreign
Diogu, Ike Arizona State
Ellis, Monta high school
Fernandez, Rudy foreign
Graham, Joey Oklahoma State
Ilyasova, Ersan foreign
Jack, Jarrett Georgia Tech
May, Sean North Carolina
McCants, Rashad North Carolina
Petro, Johan foreign
Taft, Chris Pittsburgh
Villanueva, Charlie Connecticut
Warrick, Hakim Syracuse
Webster, Martell high school
LATE FIRST/EARLY SECOND:
Blatche, Andray high school
Bynum, Andrew high school
Garcia, Francisco Louisville
Gomes, Ryan Providence
Hodge, Julius North Carolina State
Korolev, Yaroslav foreign
Miles, CJ high school
Morris, Randolph Kentucky
Simien, Wayne Kansas
Turiaf, Ronny Gonzaga
Ukic, Roko-Leni foreign
Winston, Kennedy Alabama
PROBABLE SECOND ROUND:
Diener, Travis Marquette
Ewing, Daniel Duke
Gelabale, Mickael foreign
Gigli, Angelo foreign
Gilchrist, John Maryland
Head, Luther Illinois
Kleiza, Linas Missouri
Lee, David Florida
Lorbek, Erazem foreign
Maxiell, Jason Cincinnati
Mensah-Bonsu, Pops George Washington
Rivera, Filiberto UTEP
Roberts, Lawrence Mississippi State
Robinson, Nate Washington
Rush, Brandon high school
Stoudemire, Salim Arizona
Taylor, Donell UAB
Thompson, Dijon UCLA
Wade, Tirus Louisiana-Lafayette
Walsh, Matt Florida
Williams, Louis high school
OTHER POSSIBILITES FOR SECOND ROUND:
Blankson, Odartay UNLV
Coppenrath, Taylor Vermont
Francis, Torin Notre Dame
Marshall, Rawle Oakland
Pierce, Pierre Iowa
Roberson, Anthony Florida
Schenscher, Luke Georgia Tech
Simmons, Tre Washington
Smith, Steven La Salle
Thomas, Chris Notre Dame
Williams, Jawad North Carolina
Wright, Bracey Indiana
The players have been broken the players into groups based on the information I have gathered regarding which teams are interested in which players; now let's see if an actual draft can be constructed:
MOCK DRAFT (updated 6/21)
1 Bogut, Andrew - Milwaukee
2 Paul, Chris - Atlanta
3 Green, Gerald - Portland
4 Williams, Marvin - New Orleans
5 Felton, Raymond - Charlotte
6 Williams, Deron - Utah
There may be some jostling among these top 6 picks; for instance, someone will likely trade up and grab Marvin Williams at 2 or 3. I just can't see Atlanta not taking a point guard, and Portland already has so much money committed at forward that it's hard to imagine they'd take Williams unless they think he can play the 2 or they are planning on trading Darius Miles (not a bad idea, but who would take Miles at 8 million per year?).
7 Vasquez, Fran - Toronto
8 Wright, Antoine - New York
9 Frye, Channing - Golden State
10 May, Sean - LA Lakers
11 Granger, Danny - Orlando
12 Webster, Martell - LA Clippers
13 Warrick, Hakim - Charlotte (from Cleveland)
14 Diogu, Ike - Minnesota
15 Villanueva, Charlie - New Jersey
16 Jack, Jarrett - Toronto (from Philadelphia)
17 Graham, Joey - Indiana
18 Andriuskevicius, Martynas - Boston
19 Taft, Chris - Memphis
20 McCants, Rashad - Denver (from Washington)
21 Petro, Johan - Phoenix (from Chicago)
22 Ilyasova, Ersan - Denver
23 Turiaf, Ronny - Sacramento
24 Ellis, Monta - Houston
25 Simien, Wayne - Seattle
26 Fernandez, Rudy - Detroit
27 Garcia, Francisco - Utah (from Dallas)
28 Hodge, Julius - San Antonio
29 Ukic, Roko-Leni - Miami
30 Bynum, Andrew - New York (from Phoenix)
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31 Morris, Randolph - Atlanta
32 Korolev, Yaroslav - LA Clippers (from Charlotte)
33 Gomes, Ryan - New Orleans
34 Thompson, Dijon - Utah
35 Blatche, Andray - Portland
36 Robinson, Nate - Milwaukee
37 Wade, Tirus - LA Lakers (from New York)
38 Stoudemire, Salim - Toronto
39 Gilchrist, John - LA Lakers
40 Winston, Kennedy - Golden State
41 Maxiell, Jason - Orlando
42 Ewing, Daniel - LA Clippers
43 Lee, David - New Jersey
44 Gelabale, Mickael - Orlando(from Cleveland)
45 Kleiza, Linas - Detroit (from Philadelphia)
46 Diener, Travis - Indiana
47 Williams, Louis - Minnesota
48 Rush, Brandon - Seattle (from Memphis)
49 Mensah-Bonsu, Pops - Washington
50 Roberts, Lawrence - Boston
51 Gigli, Angelo - Utah (from Chicago)
52 Taylor, Donell - Denver
53 Walsh, Matt - Boston (from Sacramento)
54 Banks, Sean - New York (from Houston)
55 Head, Luther - Seattle
56 Miles, CJ - Detroit
57 Lorbek, Erazem - Phoenix (from Dallas)
58 Bass, Brandon - Toronto (from Miami)
59 Rivera, Filiberto - Atlanta (from San Antonio)
60 Basden, Eddie - Philadelphia (from Phoenix)
The first thing you'll notice about my mock draft is that it makes sense (and I didn't charge you any 'Insider fee' to read something that I made up off the top of my head). Whereas if you believe Chad Ford, the Bucks will be selecting Marvin Williams #1. Ridiculous! The Bucks will take Bogut, without a doubt. First of all, the Bucks are already strong at the swing positions, with starters Desmond Mason and Michael Redd (assuming they resign Redd). If there was a clear cut case that Williams was the best player, then maybe you take him and trade Mason to make room (the #1 pick is not riding the bench). However, that still leaves gaping holes in the frontcourt and how much have you improved your squad? Since it is not obvious that Williams is the best player, the Bucks will take Bogut, who not only might be the best player but also fills the biggest need. I just can't see that they'd pass up this opportunity. I also can't believe that Atlanta will take Williams, considering their three best players play the same spot and all of their other players suck. If Williams is going 1 or 2, it will be because of a trade.
This continues Mr. Ford's trend of overrating (1) foreign prospects and (2) guys with 0-1 years of college experience. Over the last few years we've had the likes of Jiri Welsch, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Darko Milicic, Sasha Vujacic, Kendrick Perkins, Sergei Monya, Viktor Khryapa, Christian Drejer, Andris Biedrins, Maciej Lampe, Mickael Pietrus, Boris Diaw, Zarko Cabarkapa, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Traivs Outlaw, DeSagana Diop, Bostjan Nachbar, Eddie Griffin, Qyntel Woods, Kedrick Brown, Marcus Haislip, DaJuan Wagner, and Pavel Podkilzine shoved down our throats by Chad Ford. Eddy Curry was supposed to be the next Shaq. Any of these ring a bell?
I'm still waiting for Mirsad Turkcan to dominate games with his rebounding and toughness...
Ford hyped Corey Maggette for the #1 pick for a long time in 1999, even though he came off the bench in college and wasn't even the best player on his own team (Elton Brand). This sound at all familiar to the Marvin Williams scenario. Now I like both Maggette and Williams - good players. But I think we're overshooting just a bit.
Like many current 'experts' a lot of good college players get devalued simply because they stay in school long enough for people to find flaws in their game. Another Ford example is Dan Gadzuric. Every year since high school, Gadzuric was rumored to go pro. Out of high school, he was projected as a top 5 pick. every year, Gadzuric dropped 5-7 spots, behind the newest flavors of the month. By his senior year, it was considered lucky that he got drafted, and many thought it a reach early in round 2. In reality Gadzuric is what he is - a solid backup center. He was overrated early, using his size to dominate inferior competition, and he was underrated later, even though he was the same player. If Williams stayed in school next year, as the leader, without May, McCants, and Felton, and the team did poorly, would his stock drop? Maybe it's best that he came out now...
All high school players have flaws - they're just not evident yet!
Sometimes you can watch a high school player and you can spot that he has that 'something'. It's that inexplicable 'it', where you just know the guy belongs on the court. LeBron James is the obvious example - even though he had great numbers, James was never about statistics. You could just tell that the kid had a feel for the game. Last year, I felt the same way watching Al Jefferson play. I just thought, this guy IS a power forward. Guys like that, even with flaws, you know that they will work to improve and they will become dominant players. Unfortunately, I haven't seen enough film on this year's high school prospects to tell you which guys have 'it'.
The ultimate example of an overrated college player was Jerome Moiso, who came out early in 2000 because he thought his stock might drop if he stayed in school. Now ask yourself, do you want to take a player who doesn't even think he can dominate his college peers? Predictably, Moiso was a bust. But hey, he had upside.
In 2003, the underrated player was Dwyane Wade. Wade dominated in college, and turned a perennially average Marquette squad into a Final Four team. While no one could have predicted his quick ascent to superstardom, it was obvious that he was a starting NBA guard and the only 2 guard likely to become an All-Star from that draft. Unquestionably one of the top 4-5 talents, but his mistake of playing 2 years of college had him ranked behind such luminaries as Lampe and Podkolzine (when Podkolzine's name was still in the hat). Luckily Miami knew what they were doing when the 5th pick came around.
This year's underrated player has to be Hakim Warrick. Warrick was a stud defensive player almost immediately, with great instincts, a feel for the game, and the ability to jump out of the gym. He has improved each year, and now has a useful offensive repertoire. This development has gone largely unnoticed by several scouts, who simply say that Warrick is too thin. Well, Shawn Marion is thin also, and so is Richard Hamilton. Bottom line is that Warrick is a winner and can play.
Chad Ford can overrate these foreign players basically because few people have seen them play, and no one has any idea what they can do 5 on 5 against NBA players. Who can refute his scouting reports? Very few media pundits actually see these guys play, and even when they do the exposure is limited. By the time it is determined which foreign players are good (Nene, Dirk Nowitzki, Anderson Varejao, Peja Stojakovic, etc.) and which are terrible, no one remembers who said what about whom 3-4 years ago. So all this false information and hype gets thrown out there under the guise of 'insider information'.
I won't even begin to pretend that I can critique the games of Fran Vazquez or Johan Petro at this juncture. Likewise, it's difficult to evaluate the high school players. But that shouldn't stop us from evaluating the college players, an underrated group. Every year, solid college players, guys with 3-4 years of experience, get overlooked and come into the league and produce. Guys like Chris Duhon, Josh Howard, Jameer Nelson, Wally Szczerbiak, Kirk Hinrich, David West, Luke Ridnour, Gilbert Arenas, Luke Walton, Kyle Korver, Steve Blake, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, Rasual Butler, Dan Dickau, Juan Dixon, Richard Jefferson, Jamaal Tinsley, Michael Redd, and Quentin Richardson. Richardson is another - coming out of high school, Ford had him as a top 3 pick. Guy produces 3 years in college - now he's a late first rounder? Behind Moiso, Hedo Turkoglu, and Keyon Dooling?!!! With Redd, you could just tell just by watching him at Ohio State that he was an NBA player. Or at least anyone that really knows basketball should have seen this. Maybe scouts out-think themselves, looking too hard for the diamond in the rough, the next great thing, when the player who is obviously good is just standing there right in front of them.
Of course, not all success in college translates to the pros. There are guys that are just good college players, like Trajan Langdon, who couldn't create his own shot against quicker taller defenders, or like Kenny Walker, who was the wrong kind of tweener. Or, mor common, guys like Jon Koncak, who find that their size doesn't carry them quite as far in the NBA without the skill set to match.
Anway, now that Mr. Ford is aware that I'm on to his game, I can proceed with actually evaluating the prospects. I will be evaluating the college players only, as any other evaluation would be strictly from hearsay or third party information. I believe what my own eyes tell me.
POINT GUARD
(1a) Deron Williams - Illinois
(1b) Chris Paul - Wake Forest
(1c) Raymond Felton - North Carolina
This is sort of a cop out, but I think all three of these players will be terrific starting point guards. I think whichever one is best depends on what style of team you have and what skill you value most. Williams is the best defender of the 3 and has the size and the smarts. However, he is the least athletic.
Paul has all the tools and is the most creative player. He also makes all of his teammates better and seems to know when to shoot and when to pass. He has range on his shot and is bigger than advertised. Also has a bit of an attitude, which I like. I think he would do well in Atlanta, where they have so many finishers and no one to get them the ball.
Felton played with the best teammates, but should have had more assists and fewer turnover. Also, he has the worst shot, although he did improve over his college career. He will wow you every once in awhile, and I like his game. I think he will start to take better care of the ball and use his creativeness effectively.
In my mock draft, I 'accidentally' had these three end up on the teams that fit them the best, although the NBA draft in reality seldom works out so neatly.
(4) Jarrett Jack - Georgia Tech
(5) Nate Robinson - Washington
(6) Daniel Ewing - Duke
(7) John Gilchrist - Maryland
(8) Travis Diener - Marquette
(9) Chris Thomas - Notre Dame
(10)Filiberto Rivera - UTEP
The players listed 4-8 all have shown that they can lead and win, as well as play ball. Jack is the only one here that is probably a starter. Robinson's size is a concern, but he should be an effective backup. Thomas is a player who was disappointing in college - never seemed to progress from his promising freshman year. However, he may do better once his teammates have been upgraded. He does have moxie.
SHOOTING GUARD
(1) Joey Graham - Oklahoma State
(2) Francisco Garcia - Lousiville
(3) Antoine Wright - Texas A&M
(4) Rashad McCants - North Carolina
(5) Salim Stoudemire - Arizona
(6) Bracey Wright - Indiana
(7) Eddie Basden - Charlotte
(8) Von Wafer - Florida State
(9) Luther Head - Illinois
(10)Will Bynum - Georgia Tech
I like Wright more than most , but not sure he'll get drafted. Run of good outside shooters in Garcia, McCants, and Stoudemire. My question mark on Wright is that I never saw him step up in any important moments or games.
Several good shooting guards from the high school ranks (Green, Miles, Rush, Ellis, Webster) will beef up this relatively weak position.
SMALL FORWARD
(1) Marvin Williams - North Carolina
(2) Danny Granger - New Mexico
(3) Julius Hodge - North Carolina State
(4) Kennedy Winston - Alabama
(5) Dijon Thompson - UCLA
(6) Ryan Gomes - Providence
(7) Linas Kleiza - Missouri
(8) Odartay Blankson - UNLV
(9) Matt Walsh - Florida
(10)Isma'il Muhammed - Georgia Tech
this is a short list, but there are so many power forward prospects...Hodge is a solid player and very underrated. He carried a weak NC State team and has guard skills at the 3. Muhammed is the best dunker, for whatever that's worth. Williams is by far the best prospect, and has great tools. He is certainly a safe pick - almost no chance of being a bust. That doesn't always mean that he will dominate, though. It will be interesting to watch his development - he did not have to carry his team last year. However, considering how well Chris Bosh has turned out, I'd have to believe that Williams will be a stellar performer. In 5 years, he may be the best player from this draft. Worst case scenario, he is Corey Maggette. Not sure if his shooting range yet extends to the NBA 3 point line.
POWER FORWARD
(1) Ronny Turiaf - Gonzaga
(2) David Lee - Florida
(3) Sean May - North Carolina
(4) Charlie Villanueva - Illinois
(5) Ike Diogu - Arizona State
(6) Wayne Simien - Kansas
(7) Brandon Bass - LSU
(8) Jason Maxiell - Cincinnati
(9) Lawrence Roberts - Mississippi State
(10)Torin Francis - Notre Dame
Diogu is my overrated player here. All of these players can be excellent complementary players on the right team, but there may not be any future All-Stars here. I'd have Francis rated higher if not for his long history of debilitating injuries. Not sure why Turiaf is not rated higher - he's always been a player. Villanueva could be a bust if he ends up on the wrong team; he needs to be in the right situation. Simien may have hit his ceiling.
CENTER
(1) Andrew Bogut - Utah
(2) Channing Frye - Arizona
(3) Randolph Morris - Kentucky
(4) Chris Taft - Pitsburgh
(5) Luke Schenscher - Georgia Tech
(6) Taylor Coppenrath - Vermont
Frye has been incorrectly labeled as soft. Whoever drafts him will be very happy. Morris used to play Dwight Howard to a standoff in high school. Many of the foreign players are big men.
If the Cavaliers were to try and re-enter the draft, they'd be best off targeting either one of the shooters (McCants, Garcia, Stoudemire, Diener), someone with a defensive presence (Maxiell, Kleiza, Morris), or a point guard for the future (Jack, if we can move into round 1 high enough). Stoudemire might be the best bet. Diener is a smart player who might do well alongside LeBron, but I'm not sure if he's athletic enough for the NBA. He played with Dwyane Wade in college.
It will be interesting to see who Charlotte selects with the Cavaliers original pick at #13. They should get a very good player, maybe Warrick, which will leave Cavaliers fans cursing at Jim Paxson long after he is gone.
And as my final tribute to Chad Ford, I will make the following statement. Martynas Andriuskevicius may have a lot of upside, but I will guarantee that he is a poor NBA player at best. In other words, some GM is setting himself up to be fired if he believe the Andriuskevicius hype. Think logically - if Kevin Pittsngole changed his name to Kevsta Pittslivicius and was from Latvia, Chad Ford would have him as a lottery pick. But he's not a lottery pick - he's KEVIN PITTSNOGLE. And he's already done more at West Virginia than Martynas Andriuskevicius EVER will in the U.S.A.
I did see 5 minutes of video on Andriuskevicius, so under "Ford's axiom of scouting", I am totally qualified to forecast the player's future NBA career. Or lack thereof, as the case may be. And there is a precedent. I have 10 seconds of video footage from the 2000 Olympics that told me all I ever needed to know about one Frederic Weis. Vince Carter jumped completely over Weis to dunk a ball. Weis never bothered to show up for the NBA, probably because he thinks he's lost in The Matrix. Now if only we could lose people like Chad Ford in The Matrix as well, we could get back to evaluating players on their actual ability, and the real media could go back to actually reporting or providing well though out opinion pieces, rather than unsubstantiated rumors and sensationalist drivel.
THE LOCKOUT
Hopefully there won't be one, as we'd like to have something to report on, and we'd like to see all of these new draftees in uniform instead of becoming the tallest employee at Dairy Queen.
Frankly, I don't see the players association's problem with shortening the contracts. This benefits the player. A stud player signs a 5 year deal - that means he can renegotiate a new deal after 5 years than 7. That means if he wants to be traded it may actually be possible. The only players hurt by this are the ones that sign huge long term deals and then underperform. But those contracts hurt more than they help, because it makes teams wary of dishing out cash to players with similar pedigrees who may actually earn their money after signing rather than go into the tank. It also caps teams out and limits financial flexibility. If teams weren't so hamstrung by these dead contracts going to mediocre talent, they could improve their team and make things better for all their players.
I am against an age limit, as I don't see any argument for it that makes sense, except that it might help college basketball. But these 18-19 year old players coming in are not hurting the league directly, as they are better players by 25 than they would have been had they gone to college and had less NBA exposure. The NBA is basically taking a hit in marketing, because no one knows who these players are - they did not go through the free minor league system that is the NCAA. Also, the NBA is trying to police their own GM's, who are selecting guys too much based on upside and as a result have a roster full of guys getting paid that aren't ready to play.
It should be fairly simple to institute a minor league system, and then to expand the draft a few rounds to select players to fill this system.
The bottom line, though, is that the players and the owners need to get together on these issues and come to an agreement. A lockout means no games and thus no revenue, and in that sense, everyone loses. |
