| Ineptitude of Competition Allowing Cavaliers to Back into Playoffs Authored by Keith Berzanske - March 20, 2005 - 5:04 pm
| Current Featured Columns | | The First Three Weeks of 2008-09 Now that we’ve had a little time to watch free agency unfold, along with the usual accompaniment of trades, let’s look at some of the key moves and how they impact the teams involved.
Grading The Deal: W's Sign Maggette And TuriafThe Boom Dizzle era is over, and the Warriors quickly recovered by signing two nice pieces to complement their young core.
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As disappointing as the Cavaliers have been this week, it hasn't exactly been good times in Orlando, Indiana, or Philadelphia.
The Magic are in a complete state of disarray. Their best palyer, Steve Francis, has been suspended indefinitely for allegedly kicking a cameraman, and the Magic played so poorly in March that they had no choice but to fire Coach Johnny Davis (who should never get another head coaching job). While I never much liked Cuttino Mobley, the Magic basically gave him away, trading him for an older, used up Doug Christie. The bottom line is that the Magic are a very uninspiring 19-28 since December 10th, and are fading fast. They have 16 games left, and 3 of their remaining home games are certain losses against Phoenix, Miami, and Detroit.
One thing that may allow the Magic to sneak in despite all this is the fact that the Pacers are playing ostensibly without their 3 best players, and probably will be forced to do so for the rest of the year. Just when they were starting to come together, Jermaine O'Neal injured his shoulder, officially making this the season from hell for Indiana. If the Pacers make the playoffs Rick Carlisle should receive strong consideration for Coach of the Year. It's doubtful that any other coach handled this much adversity. The Pacers depth has saved them, as guys like Austin Croshere and Fred Jones have stepped to paly big minutes. The battle for the last playoff berth may be decided whent he Pacers travel to Orlando on April 18th.
Of course, both teams may get in if the 76ers don't find some consistency and figure out what is wrong with Chris Webber. It's not good that the three players traded for Webber, Brian Skinner, Kenny Thomas, and Corliss Williamson, have each played better than Webber since the trade. I'll attribute this to the usual post-trade chemistry problems, especially considering that Webber had played in one system for 7 years and now is an a polar opposite system with another star who dominates the ball, Allen Iverson. Iverson's health is also a concern - if he were to go down, it's hard to imagine the 76ers being able to make the playoffs. The team held it's collective breath when he suffered a chip fracture in hsi thumb earlier in the week, but it doesn't appear that the injury will cause him to miss any time.
Considering the problems that these teams have, and the fact that the Cavaliers are still ahead of Chicago as well, it's hard to imagine that the Cavalier will collapse far enough to drop to the 9 spot. It's simply not believable to think that the Pacers, Magic, and 76ers will all go on a tear in the current state. And for that, the Cavaliers should be thankful. They blew some winnable games this week, and now have tough games against Detroit, Houston, and Dallas coming up. Luckily, the schedule lightens up after that. There are 6 games that the team definitely has to win: home against New York, New Jersey, Milwaukee, and the Clippers, and on the road against New Orleans and Toronto. That would make 40, and it's probable that of the other 12 games that Cavaliers can pick up 3 wins. This means 9-9 the rest of the way, and if the Cavaliers are truly a playoff squad, they ought to be able to go at least .500 in the home stretch. 43 wins would be too much for the Magic, Pacers, and 76ers to all overcome, and it's not too much to ask.
That said, the Cavaliers have some obvious problems:
(1) Scoring off the bench.
There is none. The Cavaliers got exactly 1 bench point against the Raptors today, which is ludicrous for an NBA team. Anderson Varejao brings energy, but any points he gets are of the garbage variety, He's in there to grab rebounds, play defense and wreak havoc. Eric Snow's best days are behind him - unfortuantely he is the starter, as Paul Silas inexplicably benched Jeff McInnis. Sure, McInnis is struggling, but it's kind of late in the year for your starting point guard, a guy averaging 14 points and 5 assists, to be getting DNP-CD's. The recent benchings of McInnis and Drew Gooden (which was temporary) indicate that Paul Silas is grasping at straws, and this is no way for a team to enter the playoffs. McInnis clearly needs to improve on defense, but Snow is such a liability on offense that it almost negates any defensive presence that he provides.
The rest of the bench isn't much better than Snow. Lucious Harris clearly in running on fumes - he seems to throw up a good game every 3 weeks, which is just enough to keep him on an NBA roster. Jiri Welsch reminds me why I dont' like the idea of trading future first round picks for guys that are spot starters at best. Welsch has made exactly 8 of 35 shots since joining the Cavaliers, which makes me think I should call and see if I can get at tryout. Considering that Welsch was supposedly brought in for his outside shooting, Jim Paxson had better hope that Jiri is just in a slump. DeSagana Diop has played better but is still primarily a defensvie player. Sasha Pavlovic is in the doghouse, but Sials may need to ressurrect him just to try and get some offense.
(2) Outside shooting
I've already detailed the woes of Welsch, Harris, and Snow, so there's not much more to say. This should be addressed in the offseason with the addition of a free agent and the return of Luke Jackson, but for the rest of this year LeBron and Z aren't going to feel very confident kicking the ball outside. The Cavaliers will go as far as their big 2 carry them.
(3) Defense
The Cavaliers don't have many great individual defenders, and the ones they do have (Ira Newble, Snow, Diop) are pretty inept offensively, so it is important that the Cavaliers play good team defense. Unfortunately they only do this in spurts. Often in the second half there is a lull in concentration, and the Cavaliers allow other teams to go on long runs. If the team is going to struggle so much on offense they will really need to pay attention to defense, especially in transition, where they often just don't get back.
NBA NOTES
Donyell Marshall tied Kobe Bryant's NBA record for 3 poitners in a game with 12, and then lit up the Cavaliers on Sunday with 5 out of 10 from 3 point range. When did Marshall such a deadly marksman? He's always been a decent shooter, but in 113 career games in Toronto, he's made 254 out of 617 attempts, a 41.1% conversion rate. This is terrific for a player Marshall's size who also averages 7 rebounds per game. Marshall, a free agent, has made himself a lot of money with his late season showing. He's a player the Cavaliers will have to consider if the pursuit of Ray Allen, Michael Redd, and Larry Hughes does not pan out.
There's no greater evidence in the difference a coach can make than seeing the impact that Mike Fratello and George Karl have made in Memphis and Denver respectively since taking over. Both coaches hav got their teams to play defense, and the hard work will likely lad to the final two playoff spots in the West, leaving the Lakers and Timberwolves on the outside looking in. The Timberwolves look as though they just want the season to end so that they can start over next year. The Lakers should be running their ofense through Lamar Odom, which the can't as long as Kobe Bryant is on the floor. What they really need to do is move some of their extraneous small forwards (Caron Butler, Luke Walton, Devean George, Jumaine Jones) and get some size up front. Odom should not have to play the 4, and Brian Cook should not be playing at all, but Brian Grant and Vlade Divac's best days are behind them.
It's not surprising that Antoine Walker has made such a difference for the surging Celtics, who have won 7 straight games. He does not have the same chemistry issues that Chris Webber does - he played on this team and with Paul Pierce the team's best player, for several years, and with success. Also, the Celtics gave up notihng to get Walker, now that they've reacquired Gary Payton. It's like the Magic getting Grant Hill back from injury.
NCAA TOURNEY NOTES
The Cavaliers don't have a first round pick, but it's still worth noting some of the college players that wil probably be playing at the next level:
CHRIS PAUL - best point gaurd in college baskteball. He's almost a lock to come out early, and he'll be a starter in the NBA. Has court vision, gets teammates involve,d but can also score when necessary. Paul is also a decent defender.
ANDREW BOGUT - Bogut is definitely an NBA palyer, but I'm not sure yet whether he will be a star or just a serviceable guy. He's better than Chris Mihm, but is he Brad Miller? Bogut is an excpetional passer for his size, can rebound, and has good hands. Also, he's Australian, which counts for something in my book. Bogut played well in the Olympics and seems to be a good team player as well.
JULIUS HODGE - Hodge is probably a late first round pick, a versatile player in the Jalen Rose mold. It's not certain whether he has any one skill that sets him apart, however.
HAKIM WARRICK - Warrick is my pick for the most underrated player in college basketball. He should be a terrific pro, somewhere between Keon Clark and Shawn Marion; closer to Marion, except that Warrick has a post up game.
MARVIN WILLIAMS - Williams may stay in school another year, as most UNC players tend to do. After all, he did come off the bench his freshman year. He's a terrific prospect that may eventually be a number one overall pick. Even this year, he'd be in the lottery. Great all around game, very smooth.
Here are some other names you may hear on draft day - I'll overview a few each week until the draft approaches:
RAYMOND FELTON
RASHAD MCCANTS
SEAN MAY
DERON WILLIAMS
DEE BROWN
JJ REDICK
CHRIS TAFT
DANNY GRANGER
JOEY GRAHAM
WAYNE SIMIEN
KENNEDY WINSTON
JARRETT JACK
CHARLIE VILLANUEVA
RONNY TURIAF
SALIM STOUDAMIRE
FRANCISCO GARCIA
CHANNING FRYE
RUDY GAY
RYAN GOMES
LAWRENCE ROBERTS
DIJON THOMPSON
DAVID LEE
IKE DIOGU
PIERRE PIERCE
ANTOINE WRIGHT
NATE ROBINSON
The Cavaliers do have a second round pick, and should consider players like Redick and Stoudamire, who can shoot, if those guys are available in round 2. Overall, it's a weak draft, although there are some good point guards. Next year's draft, however, could be loaded.
One thing to note about this year's draft is that while there are no NBA ready high school seniors this year, you may see several declare for the sole reason that they fear the NBA will institute a 20-year age minimum,a nd they don't want to be forced to play 2 years of college. I'm not sure how the NBA could legally enforce this, but even if they can, I think it's a mistake for most of this year's seniors to skip college.
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