| Being Cavalier about the future Authored by Keith Berzanske - February 22, 2005 - 2:44 am
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Unfortunately, given the injuries and the need to maintain cap flexibility to sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas and possibly Jeff McInnis, the Cavaliers are unlikely to make a major deal at the trade deadline. And so while we can expect the Cavaliers to win 48-50, it's unlikely they will advance beyond the 2nd round of the playoffs, where they would find themselves against either the Heat or the Pistons. The lack of outside shooting and playoff experience, not to mention the unlikelihood of the Cavaliers making such a far leap in one season with 8 new players and a 20 year old phenom, means that fans should set their expectations accordingly. But really, getting to the second round of the playoffs would be a fantastic step for this team, and both the team and the fans should be proud of this accomplishment.
For the first time in the history of the Cavaliers, it is one of their own players who is one of the signature faces of the NBA. And LeBron James is not all hype, despite what you may hear from Charley Rosen and other so-called 'experts'. LeBron is not only a candidate for MVP, he may very well win the league's Most Improved Player Award. The season he is having, currently ranking in the top ten in points, assists, steals, and minutes per game while shooting close to 50% is of historical significance and should be noted.
LeBron's current efficiency rating is 28.35 per game. This is third in the league behind Kevin Garnett (32.33) and Dirk Nowitzki (28.48). More amazing, however, is how this stacks up historically. In the modern era of the NBA (since 1979-1980, when the three point shot was instituted and Magic and Bird entered the NBA), the only players to have a 28+ efficiency rating for a season, along with the number of times that they did it, are:
Hakeem Olajuwon 11 (23)
Karl Malone 10 (24)
Michael Jordan 9 (21)
Magic Johnson 9 (21)
Shaquille O'Neal 9 (20)
Larry Bird 8 (25)
Charles Barkley 8 (22)
David Robinson 7 (24)
Kevin Garnett 4 (23)
Moses Malone 4 (23)*
Patrick Ewing 3 (27)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 2 (22)*
Tim Duncan 2 (25)
Tracy McGrady 1 (23)
Kobe Bryant 1 (24)
Adrian Dantley 1 (24)
Clyde Drexler 1 (26)
Chris Webber 1 (27)
Alex English 1 (29)
Kevin McHale 1 (29)
{In parentheses is the player's age on opening day of the first season in which he accomplished the feat. *Note that Abdul-Jabbar and Moses Malone accomplished the feat several times before the 1979-1980 season.}
As you can see, James is not only keeping good company, he is exceeding it. He was only 19 when the year began, so if he can maintain the 28+ rating it will be yet another 'youngest ever' feather for James to put in his cap. He's already the youngest ever to record a triple double, score 40+ in a game, and reach milestones of 2000 points, 500 rebounds, and 500 assists.
Like the great players on this list, James not only racks up numbers, but had an impact in the win column as well. The Cavaliers are 63-65 with LeBron in the lineup over the past two seasons, and it won't be long before he breaks .500 for good. This seemingly pedestrian accomplishment is really amazing considering how bad the Cavaliers were and how little talent was on board when James came around. There's a short list of players who, just by their presence, guarantee that the team will win more games than they lose. Jordan, Bird, Magic, Shaq, The Admiral, The Mailman, Charles Barkley, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Hakeem Olajuwon, and now LeBron.
This means that if the goal of the Cavaliers is to be a perennial playoff contender, all they have to do is surround LeBron with fairly competent NBA players. But hopefully the franchise will not be content to simply pencil in a playoff berth every year. While it's a nice story this year, 3-4 years from now (heck, maybe even next year), expectations will be higher. There are several key moves the Cavaliers can make this offseason to get them moving in the right direction.
(1) Acquire an outside shooter
In theory, Luke Jackson and/or Sasha Pavlovic will become consistent threats from the outside, which will give the Cavaliers another scoring option and open the floor even more. In the interim, a stop-gap solution will do nicely, allowing these young players to come off the bench or be used in key spot situations the next couple of years.
In my mind, the solution is none other than Ray Allen, for the following reasons:
(a) Allen is one of the best outside shooters in NBA history, one of only 17 players in history with at least 1000 three point attempts to hit at least 40% from behind the arc for his career.
(b) Allen is a 5 time All-Star and is used to pressure situations.
(c) Allen is a winner - he won at college, was largely responsible for turning a moribund Milwaukee franchise around, and has performed a near miracle in Seattle this season.
(d) Allen is an excellent free throw shooter, good for 88.5% for his career.
(e) Allen is a free agent, meaning he can be acquired without directly sacrificing talent (although cap room will be needed). he also wants to play for a contender, which the Cavaliers are in the East as long as they have a healthy LeBron James.
(f) Allen is a better option than Michael Redd, simply because he is more proven and has performed more consistently at a higher level for a longer period, including in playoffs. Don't forget, Redd used to be Allen's backup.
(g) Allen is unselfish and versatile. He can handle the ball, moves well without the ball, can pass (4 assists per game for career), and can rebound.
Other options:
MICHAEL REDD - don't get me wrong - Redd is an excellent option. But if Allen is available, I'd go in that direction. Redd is a lefty and would be a good fit at the swing position with LeBron.
WALLY SZCZERBIAK - Szczerbiak would be a great fit, but he'd only be available in trade, and with his salary, it's doubtful the Cavaliers have enough pieces that the Timberwolves want that would match up.
JASON KAPONO - The Problem with bringing Kapono back is that he's not as good as Jackson or Pavlovic. If only the Cavaliers had taken my suggestion and drafted Kyle Korver in the second round last year...speaking of Korver...
KYLE KORVER - Korver is a free agent, and since he was a second round pick, it's possible that the 76ers cannot offer him as much as he might make with another team.
MIKE MILLER - Doubtful that the Grizzlies would trade Miller, but you never know.
JON BARRY - Barry would be a great addition but is not really a long term solution.
ANTHONY PEELER - see Barry
It's obvious that the pickings are slim when it comes to outside shooters. But Ray Allen is out there. He's been negotiating with the Sonics for months. Yet no deal is done. And there's no obligation for Allen to stay in Seattle. Perhaps the lure of LeBron and the possibility of a championship would be enough to lure that sweet shooter to coming to Cleveland.
(2) Sign Zydrunas Ilgauskas
The caveat to this is 'as cheaply as possible'. Ilgauskas already got a max contract and was paid for a time in which he played less than half of the possible games. He loves playing with LeBron and may be willing to take less this time around as a show of good faith, and the chance to win a ring. 3 years $22 million ought to get the job done.
(3) Prepare to lock up Drew Gooden and LeBron James in 2006 and 2007.
Freeing up money for the Gooden and James extension that will come up in the next couple of years, may mean sacrificing Jeff McInnis. McInnis has been valuable tot he squad, but the team should avoid overpaying him. He has already reached his peak and will likely regress from here on out, i.e. lose a step here, make a mental error there, etc. We're already overpaying one point guard in Eric Snow, and I think the team should be careful about their cap flexibility.
(4) Pay the draft pick debts
We owe a couple of draft picks to other teams. Pay up now. The next couple of drafts are not deep and the Cavaliers don't really need another rookie at this point anyway. If someone was drafted, there would be no place for them anyway.
(5) Get rid of DaJuan Wagner and invest some time in DeSagana Diop.
Wagner is hopeless, but Diop is starting to show signs here and there. It never hurts to be able to bring in someone of Diop's size and athleticism off the bench, and while his offense may lacking, there are plenty of other guys who can take up the scoring load while he concentrates on rebounding and blocking shots.
(6) Use Lucious Harris and Tractor Traylor as bait next year.
These guys have contracts that expire in 2006 and that total over 9 million dollars. These expiring contracts ought to be valuable in trade next year, and by that time we can afford to lose these players and have their roles filled by the likes of Sasha Pavlovic, Luke Jackson, and Anderson Varejao.
Continuity is the key. The Cavaliers need to keep their core group together, add one major piece that shores up the weaknesses. Then they just need to prepare themselves for the 25% roster attrition that takes place each year. If the Cavaliers plan ahead wisely, we'll not only see them in the postseason for years to come, but one year we'll see them standing alone at the end of the postseason. And while that's a sight well worth waiting for, Cavaliers fans expect that LeBron James will make it happen in the next 5 years. History shows that this may not be as crazy as it sounds. |
