| Injury bug hits Cavaliers hard Authored by Keith Berzanske - January 29, 2005 - 10:16 pm
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It always starts with a guy that really wasn't playing much anyway. Sure, Luke Jackson was a lottery pick, and he was being counted on to contribute with his outside shooting and versatile floor game. But Jackson wasn't here last year when the team started to turn things around, and he wasn't a big part of the early season success. The reason: back trouble. Jackson finally decided to get the problem taken care of once and for all, rather try and play through the lingering effects at half speed the rest of the season. Back surgery means he won't be available until next year.
DaJuan Wagner followed Jackson in going on the shelf. Wagner may not have been blessed with Bob Cousy like skills, but apparently has the digestive system of a man Cousy's age. Whether it's problems with his intestines, kidney, or pancreas, Wagner just can't stay out of the hospital. I'm sure at this point Wagner would be grateful to have a normal basketball injury. At least something he could blame his poor shooting and lack of lateral movement on. But Paul Silas handed Wagner a sign earlier in the season that read "Location: Benchville, Population: You". So his absence didn't seem noteworthy either.
Ira Newble then strained his Achilles. Now Newble is not Scottie Pippen, but he is a starter and the team's second best defender (after LeBron James). Newble usually took on the opposition's leading scorer to allow James to conserve some energy and he was good for heavy minutes. So while his loss is hopefully temporary, it was apparent that the bench, no matter how depleted, would need to step up.
As it turns out, the Cavaliers would have preferred 'depleted' to 'non-existant'. Which is largely what the bench became after Anderson Varejao, the team's 6th man and energy spark plug, suffered a high ankle sprain and was lost for 4-6 weeks. This injury was deveastating both to the team and Varejao, who was really starting to get noticed around the NBA.
More devastating was the sprained ankle suffered by LeBron James against Memphis, after being undercut by Dahntay Jones. While James returned in that game to help the cavaliers seal a victory, he could not go against New York, and his absence was significant in a game that the Cavaliers, with even some of their manpower, would have won easily.
The injuries to James, Varejao, and Newble brought the injuries to Jackson and Wagner (and Scott Williams, who has suffered nagging inuries all year) to light. Those would have been the guys stepping in for the injured full timers. Now, instead of Jackson stepping in for Newble or James, Aleksandar Pavlovic had to take on more minutes than he was ready for. Instead of Wagner being able to provide some needed scoring punch, Eric Snow was forced to log 40 minutes at shooting guard. Snow has some fine attributes, but he is not a scorer. With Varejao unavailable, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Tractor Traylor were forced to log too many minutes. Traylor is effective in short spurts,but is prone to run out of gas, while Z just picks up too many sheap fouls when fatigued. Had Z not ahd to do so much against the Knicks, that last shot might have gone down. As it was, without enough scoring options, Z had to take on too much of the load.
So can the Cavaliers stay afloat for the next few weeks until some of these players return?
The upcoming schedule does the Cavaliers no favors, except that most of the games are at home. The next few games line up as follows:
MILWAUKEE
at Orlando
at Miami
ORLANDO
TORONTO
DENVER
LA LAKERS
ATLANTA
at Minnesota
CHICAGO
at Indiana
at New Jersey
What does do a favor in the disposition of LeBron James. James is not likely to miss many more games, if any, unless he cannot walk. I'd bet on him giving it a go on Sunday, in a nationally televised game against a beatable Milwaukee Bucks squad. The last thing James wants to do is watch his team give away another game to an inferior opponent, especially before entering a tough stretch against playoff bound teams.
Realistically, with James back, the Cavaliers should win all of these home games, with maybe one misstep. They are catching some of these teams at the right time. The Lakers may not have Kobe Bryant back, or he will have just come back and they'll need time to adjust and work him back in with Caron Butler and Lamar Odom. The Nuggets will have gotten over the high of hiring a new coach and will go back to being a flawed team with some key players (Carmelo, K-Mart, and Nene) nicked up. The toughest home game may be against the suddenly resurgent Bulls, but they should have reutrned to Earth by Feb. 23rd.
The road games are tougher. Where the loss of Varejao will really be felt is against the Heat and the Timberwolves. Varejao is the type of player that can annoy Shaq and would provide a good counterpoint to Drew Gooden against Kevin Garnett, where Traylor will be largely ineffective (no pun intended).
As we get towards the end of the monht, the increased minutes will take a toll and the team will get fatigued much easier. This especially makes the road games difficult. If the Cavaliers can go 6-1 at home and just 1-4 on the road, they'll return home to meet the Spurs and Sonics for a mini-homestand that starts February 28th in a good position to make a run at that elusive division title. Everyone with the exception of Luke Jackson should be back and in full health by the end of February. 32-22 is not a bad way to come out of the winter. The Pistons have yet to assert themselves, the Pacers are not at full strength, and it's hard to belive that the Bulls can stay as hot as they have been. And while the Pistons have a lighter schedule in February and may temporarily surge ahead, they still need to go on a West Coast swing that will likely bring them back to the pack. If the Cavaliers can keep pace, a game against the Pistons on April 17th, the 80th game of the year, could very well decide the division title.
NOTES (around the league with random thoughts)
The Cavaliers have only won ONE division title in their history, in 1975-1976 when they won the Central with a 49-33 record. They bested the Washington Bullets by one game. That season is widely known as 'The Miracle of Richfield'. The Cavaliers made it to the second round that year before bowing to the Celtics in a series that many feel the Cavaliers would have won had Jim Chones not broken his foot. The Celtics went on to win the NBA title that year. One might wonder if the outcome also would have been different if second round pick Dan Roundfield, who ended up having a stellar career with the Atlanta Hawks, not spurned the Cavaliers and gone to the ABA.
The Cavaliers have not made the playoffs since 1997-1998. This is the fourth longest streak in the NBA (tied with Chicago), behind the LA Clippers and Washington Wizards(1996-1997) and the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have not made the playoffs since 1993-1994, when they had a star rookie forward named Chris Webber, and it does not look like that streak will end this season.
The Wizards, Magic, and Suns have already won more games this season than they did all of last year. Chicago needs one more win to match last year's total. Meanwhile, the Pacers lost 21 games all of last year and have already lost that many this year.
While the trade of Tony Battie for Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao looks like a steal for the Cavaliers, the biggest heist of the offseason may have the been the Wizards extracting Antawn Jamison from the Mavericks for Devin Harris and Jerry Stackhouse. The Wizards have continued to win depsite losing Larry Hughes and not realy having worked the injured Etan Thomas and Kwame Brown into the rotation at all. This is mostly due to Jamison's tenacious play, along with Gilbert Arenas's leadership. Hughes is an integral piece, however; it wouldn't be surprising if the Wizards start to struggle without him. That aside, the trade for Jamison was stellar work by a front office not known for shrewd moves. The Mavericks, to their credit, have not missed a beat despite losing both Jamison and Steve Nash, both who will be All-Stars. Yes, Dirk is that good.
The Suns are having a nice season, but I'm not sure about them trading for Jim Jackson. They were already a top heavy team, with their starters logging heavy minutes, so trading 3 young bench guys who could develop seems questionable. Jackson is a nice scorer off the bench, meaning there won't be much drop off if he enters the game for Joe Johnson or Quentin Richardson. I just wonder if it's too much of the same thing. If an injury sidelines either Shawn Marion or Amare Stoudemire for any length of time, the Suns will really be playing small ball.
Has anyone star player ever been more ripe for a trade than Baron Davis? He's been on and off IR, and his team has won 8 out of 42 games and is looking at rebuilding. However, while Davis is still young (25) and productive (when healthy), and coming off an All-Star season, Dan Dickau has shown that, given time, he can man the point guard spot in Steve Nash-lite type fashion. Dickau actualy reminds me a bit of Mark Price and it's good to see him finally getting a real opportunity (why he was riding the bench in Atlanta, a team that hasn't had a real point gaurd since Mookie Blaylock, is oneof the NBA's greater recent mysteries. Dickau notwithstanding, there also is an excellent crop of young stud point guards coming out of college this year, and the Hornets will have a high draft pick. Two of these, Wake Forest's Chris Paul and North Carolina's Raymond Feltong, have local connections also. Trading Davis could bring more assets at the swing positions, and the Hornets could set themselves up nicely for next year. Jamaal Magloire, Jamal Mashburn, and David West should all return from injury, and Dickau, JR Smith, and Lee Nailon have all shown that they are quality NBA players The team could rebuild quicker than they think if thy make the right move with Davis. Despite his injury problems, Davis will be attractive to someone. Maybe he could be swapped straight up for Paul Pierce, another star who probably needs a change of scenery.
The Rockets are on the rise, and while it seems that the trades they made for Jon Barry and David Wesley are the cause for the turnaround, the real reason (aside from the improved play of Tracy McGrady, who finally looks comfortable), is the return of Bob Sura from the injured list. Bobby Basketball has been the spark the Rockets needed. When he plays well the Rockets usually win.
It's too early to judge this year's draft picks, but it's looking like the Hawks once again swung and missed. Josh Childress looks more like a role palyer than impact palyer, unlike small forwards Luol Deng and Andre Iguodala. Iguodala may also be a role player, but with more of an impact than Childress. This continues the Hawks disturbing trend of not only missing the best player available, but more specifically missing AT THE VERY POSITION THEY ARE SELECTING. Here are some examples from past drafts (palyer passed on in parenthesees):
2004 Josh Childress (Luol Deng)
2003 Boris Diaw (Josh Howard)
2001 traded pick for Shareef Abdur-Rahim (pick: Pau Gasol)
2000 DerMarr Johnson (Michael Redd)
1999 Cal Bowdler (Jeff Foster)
1999 Dion Glover (Devean George)
1998 Roshown McLeod (Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis)
1997 Ed Gray (Bobby Jackson, Stephen Jackson)
1996 Priest Lauderdale (Malik Rose)
1995 Alan Henderson (Theo Ratliff)
1993 Doug Edwards (Chris Mills)
1992 Adam Keefe (Robert Horry)
1990 Rumeal Robinson (Dee Brown)
The gaffes are bad enough in general (like taking Roy Marble in 1989 instead of Vlade Divac or taking Edwards instead of Sam Cassell in 1993 or having 4 first round picks on 1999 and somehow missing out on Foster, Corey Maggette, Ron Artest, James Posey, Andrei Kirilenko, Kenny Thomas, Devean George, and Lee Nailon). But even if you talk yourself into taking a player at a certain position, like small forward in 1998, HOW CAN YOU CONSISTENTLY MISS THE BEST GUY ON THE BOARD AT THAT POSITION? Are there no scouts working for the Hawks? Roshown McLeod over Rashard Lewis and Al Harrington? I was just out of college and my only qualification was watching a lot of basketball on TV, and even I knew that Roshown McLeod was terrible and that Al Harrington and Rasahrd Lewis were at worst solid role players, if not potential stars.
The rosters have been announced for the annual Rookie/Sophomore challenge:
ROOKIES
Dwight Howard
Emeka Okafor
Tony Allen
Luol Deng
Ben Gordon
Devin Harris
Andre Iguodala
Josh Smith
Beno Udrih
SOPHOMORES
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Carmelo Anthony
Chris Bosh
Udonis Haslem
Kirk Hinrich
Josh Howard
Luke Ridnour
Kyle Korver
Even if James and Wade do not play in this game after being voted to the All-Star team, and are replaced by, say, Chris Kaman and Jarvis Hayes, is there any way the rookies win this game? I love Okafor, but the sophs are deep, and Anthony will probably be annoyed at the way his year is going and take it out on someone.
More important, does anyone care who wins this game? The most intersting subplot to me is watching guys who are teammates or used to be teamamtes in college squaring up against each other. I want to see Hinrich take Gordon to the hole. Can Korver get a shot off against Iguodala. This is the fun stuff, the game within the game...
As an aside, how did Al Jefferson not make the rookie team? I can only assume it's due (as with Anderson Varejao's omission) to the sprained ankle he suffered recently that will keep him out the next 3-4 weeks. Jefferson, at 19, is already a mature NBA post player and will be scoring on the block for years to come. By next season he should be starting and averaging 18 and 9, if the Celtics know what they are doing. Jefferson averaged 43 points and 16 rebounds per game in high school (that's not a typo), and is showing that it just wasn't due to inferior competition.
Anyone seen Darko lately? Hard to believe he missed the rookie/sophomore game both years. He's either going to quietly disappear into oblivion or one year burst out in volcano eruption fashion like Jermaine O'Neal did after escaping 4 years of bench purgatory in Portland.
Not only did the Blazers have O'Neal, but at one point actually had a front court of O'Neal, Rasheed Wallace, Brian Grant, and Kelvin Cato. And this was before drafting Zach Randolph. The Blazers somehow managed to parlay the first three players into Dale Davis, Shawn Kemp, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, and Theo Ratliff (they did throw Cato into the Scottie Pippen trade). This is how you go from an NBA Finals contender to an afterthought real fast. At least Ratliff can block shots...
I got a lot of mail from angry Knicks fans regarding my last few 'NBA update' columns, where I predicted a Knicks collapse out of playoff contention and outed Stephon Marbury. If any of you want to write back in, I'm still here...
My All-Star picks (since the game is in a couple of weeks)
EAST
G Dwyane Wade
G LeBron James
F Grant Hill
F Antwan Jamison
C Shaquille O'Neal
bench
Allen Iverson
Jermaine O'Neal
Paul Pierce
Gilbert Arenas
Steve Francis
Drew Gooden
Ben Wallace
this became easier when Larry Hughes and Richard Jefferson removed themselves from consideration due to injury.
The other guys who should be considered for the East team are Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Emeka Okafor, and Stephon Marbury. Ilgauskas and Gooden are a coin flip. Marbury I'm not including not only because his team is poor but because I think he is part of the problem. Okafor is being excluded because he plays for an expansion team that has 9 wins and he is a rookie, although I love his game and if he makes it I have no complaints.
The real problem is that Vince Carter will get votedin as a starter,w hich means a player like Pierce or Arenas may get the short end. Too many guards in the East. Hopefully next year LeBron will be on the ballot at forward.
WEST
this is more difficult...
G Steve Nash
G Ray Allen
F Kevin Garnett
F Tim Duncan
C Yao Ming
bench
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Webber
Mike Bibby
Amare Stoudemire
Shawn Marion
Tracy McGrady
Rashard Lewis
I cheated somewhat and eliminated Baron Davis, Kobe Bryant, and Pau Gasol due to injury, assuming they won't be recovered in time to play, along with Andrei Kirilenko, who is not at full strength yet.
The guy that really gets screwed here is Brad Miller, but who can you leave off?
Elton Brand, Zach Randolph, and Carlos B$$zer all have good numbers, but their teams aren't good enough for them to make it. Lewis gets the nod over Lamar Odom because of how well the Sonics have played.
Several guys that made it last year won't be making the return trip, including Baron Davis, Sam Cassell, Peja Stojakovic, Michael Redd, Jamaal Magloire, Jason Kidd, Kenyon Martin, and Ron Artest. ALl have had disappointing seasons, although some have been derailed by injuries. Redd's season, it should be noted, is not purely his fault - he has little help in Milwaukee.
There are always offseason moves that don't work out, but a couple have surprised me. Carlos B$$zer's move to Utah has been an unmitigated disaster for both Boozer and the Jazz. The Jazz have actually regressed from last year and have tied up a lot of money in B$$zer, who has put up nice numbres but appears to be a complementary player at best. They'll be hard pressed to convince a backcourt star to come to Utah, and it wil be even more difficult with limited funds (they also tied up a lot of money in Mehmut Okur). To make matters worse, the team that B$$zer left is in first place and getting national attention,and the player that replaced B$$zer, Drew Gooden, is putting up similar numbers and may make the All-Star team, When you consider all that plus the hit the B$$zer's reputation has taken since reneging on the 'handshake deal' with the Cavaliers, it's been a pretty bad year for Carlos.
Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin thoght he was buying low and selling high by going from the Nets (seemingly on the way down) to the Nuggets (a team ont he rise). But basketball is about chemistry, and while Martin is a good tough player, the pieces do not fit in Denver. They have too many similar players and so far their offense has been reduced to a series of one on one play. they have no one to stretch the defense and don't move the ball well. It wil be interesting to see what new coach George Karl comes up with. One change he could make would be to give Earl Boykins mroe minutes at the point. Boykins would push the ballmore, and an uptempo style would help both Martin and Carmelo Anthony. The Nets, in turn, are not as bad off as everyone thought. They parlayed a couple of the draft picks they got from the Martin deal into a suddenyl rejeuvenated Vince Carter and also freed themselves of Alonzo Mourning's deal. When Richard Jefferson returns they'll be an interesting team, although they still need more frontcourt pieces. But that fast break - WOW!
And I'd like to end this colum with a personal apology - to Dwyane Wade. Dwyane it just occured to me a coupleof weeks ago that I've been spelling your name wrong for about 2 years. Trust me when I tell you that this upset me, as I am a huge Dwyane Wade fan and I think that the rivalry in the East between DW and LBJ will be one of the NBA's best ever. So don't worry Dwyane, from now on I'll not only be turning people on to your skills and your game, as I've tried to in the past, but this time I'll be doing it with the 'y' before the 'a'. I may also write Microsoft and see if I can get them to add 'Dwyane' to their spell check. After all, you're soon to be a household name.
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