| 2009-10 Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers Authored by Andrew Perna - October 12, 2009 - 4:08 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: +16.8, 1st
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe
Key Subtractions: Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Sasha Pavlovic, Wally Szczerbiak
Key Rookies: Danny Green
Probable Starters: Maurice Williams, Delonte West, LeBron James, Andersen Varejao, Shaquille O’Neal
Point Guard: At times, Mo Williams has been everything the Cavaliers need, but he also perfectly represents the team’s overlying need to surround LeBron James with a superior supporting cast. He’s quick with the basketball and handles it well, but focuses too often on his own offensive game. The truth is in the numbers; his assist percentage is just 20.1%, while his turnover percentage is very good (12.7%).
Part of the reason for Williams’ reduced “passing” numbers is the presence of James, who is comfortable handling the ball. Williams, who made his first All-Star game this past February, has been very steady over the past three years. His points per game have varied by just a half a point over the last three years and only his assist numbers (down from 6.3 to 4.1 last season) have changed significantly.
He’s a very good shooter, which is part of the reason why he sometimes has more confidence in himself than his teammates, but nearly disappeared against the Magic in the Conference Finals. Fans in Cleveland won’t soon forget that, and I wholeheartedly believe that the Cavaliers would have given the Lakers more trouble than the Magic did in the NBA Finals.
Ultimately, any assessment of Williams should boil down to one thing. His skill set is ideal for a two-guard in an offense that features multiple ball-handlers. Unfortunately, his size (6’1”, 190 pounds) almost makes him a point guard by default.
Daniel “Boobie” Gibson is Cleveland’s backup point guard on paper, but he’s even less suited for the position than Williams. Gibson is the superior shooter and his shot could be the key to the team’s success this season, especially with the need to spread the floor with Shaquille O’Neal in town. I don’t know about LeBron, but I’d love to see general manager Danny Ferry acquire a pure passing point guard who wasn't focused on his own scoring.
Swingmen: Delonte West is a much better player now than he was early on with the Celtics, but it’s hard to imagine him remaining on the Cavaliers for much longer. His offcourt issues, whether it’s his bipolar disorder or legal woes, have been well-documented over the last few weeks. For that reason, I won’t overanalyze his role in Cleveland.
Anthony Parker signed with the Cavaliers this summer expecting to share time with West at shooting guard, but it’s now looking like he’ll get not only a majority of the minutes but the starting role as well. Parker has a great jump shot and can be a very solid defender. West is probably the better passer, but both as a player and a person, Parker is the much more stable option.
Listing all the things that LeBron does well would simply take up too much time. After struggling with his shooting efficiency during his rookie season, he’s shot better than 47% from the field in each of the last five seasons. Many, including Rick Barry, aren’t fond of his jump shot, but his true shooting percentage was 59.1% last season and he averaged 1.42 points per shot despite being far from reliable at the foul line.
He has ranked in the top four in Win Shares in each of the last five seasons, including a league-leading 19.6 in 2008-09.
Even the most casual fans know how good James is, but will Jamario Moon and rookie Danny Green be able to contribute on the wing like Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic did? Or perhaps even more?
I thought Moon was a little overrated when he broke out in Toronto, but going on nearly athleticism alone he meant a lot more to the Raptors than it seemed. His net points per 100 possessions was +8.0 as he played both forward positions and shooting guard. Mike Brown can use Moon all over the floor, which he might need to if West is in fact on his way out. He’ll run with his new teammates effortlessly, but needs to same at home more often on defense. The Cavaliers won’t always need him to make outstanding, athletic plays, but they will need him to play solid minutes.
Frontcourt: The big story in the paint is obviously the addition of Shaquille O’Neal, which has left many in Cleveland salivating. That’s a sensation I don’t understand, because they now have a pair of centers that will lumber up-and-down the floor in O’Neal and Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
Centers like O’Neal and Ilgauskas have become a rare breed in the NBA and while Ilgauskas is a much better shooter, they will present the Cavaliers with the same problems. Faster centers will beat the pair down the floor with ease, which could force Brown to play Andersen Varejao ahead of the heralded pair at times.
O’Neal had positive on/off court numbers last season on the struggling Suns and those figures should increase with the Cavaliers, who are a far better team. Ilgauskas, who has been linked to the Warriors in Stephen Jackson scenarios, could be playing in his NBA swan song. He’s still an above-average center, but foot injuries have robbed him of what little agility he had while also shortening his career.
Varejao can make up for all of the athletic shortcomings of O’Neal and Ilgauskas, but he’s severely limited on the offensive end. He’s a lunch pail scorer, meaning a majority of his points are going to come on either botched plays or offensive rebounds.
Cleveland doesn’t have a lot of proven depth behind the three big men I mentioned above, with J.J. Hickson, Darnell Jackson and Jawad Williams battling for the minutes left behind by O’Neal, Ilgauskas and Varejao.
They do, however, have a nice ace in the hole. If Leon Powe returns to full-strength he could turn out to be one of the better acquisitions that Ferry has made. He’s a little small and not nearly as agile as Varejao, but he’d provide nice insurance for the Cavaliers and fresh legs around midseason. He can play three different positions, depending on the opposition, and is someone that I believe the Celtics will regret letting go.
Forecast: An injury to LeBron James is the only thing that is going to keep the Cavaliers from winning the Central Division and grabbing one of the top three seeds in the Eastern Conference. With that said, to take that extra step and make it all the way to the NBA Finals again, LeBron needs help and stability around him. I might sound like a broken record, but it’s the truth. O’Neal doesn’t push Cleveland over the top and it’ll take a very strong effort for the Cavaliers to remain ahead of Boston and Orlando. I see a win total in the high 50s and a very tough second round matchup with either the Celtics or Magic this spring.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
